US and Israel view assassinations as a straight line to “victory.” But killing leaders and generals will not collapse nation-states with sound political-military structures. The assumption that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) rests on a “cult of personality”—Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei—is facile. Assassinations have unintended consequences.
Islamic Republic of Iran
For 47 years, western leaders have demonized and delegitimized the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). Dismissive terms include “regime,” “mullah-regime,” “theocracy,” and “dictatorship.” This despite abundant academic literature showing that IRI has (1) democratic mechanisms and structures; (2) separation of political (presidency and parliament) and judicial powers; and mix of (mostly) secular and (some) Islamic laws. IRI is not a dictatorship or theocracy—it’s a hierocracy—and not unusual in Iranian history (see, e.g., here and here). Western leaders are trapped by their own childish rhetoric. The “regime” is not a “banana republic” that will collapse because an 87 year-old died in his office.
Global War on Terror
American experiences in GWOT (2001–2021) are illustrative. The US killed 1000s of enemy combatants and civilians in Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan with USAF and USN bombings, drone strikes, and SOF raids. CIA became obsessed with assassinations. Husayn bin Obama authorized 563 drone strikes (in 8 years) versus George W. Bush’s 57 drone strikes (<8 years). But what did this carnage achieve? Outrage in IRQ, AFG, and PAK over civilian deaths, including hundreds of children. Iraq was lost. The Afghan Taliban won despite losing hundreds (or more) of their “mullahs” and senior commanders.
It is satisfying to dispatch Usama bin Laden and al-Zawahiri, but al-Qaida (AQ) and al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) adapted and morphed. AQ/AQI are alive in new forms. AQ holds the presidency of Syria.
Hierarchies
AQ, AQI, Afghan Taliban (TB), Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Haqqani Network (HN), etc., have hierarchies and/or succession protocols. Knock off the head man and the chap next in line gets a promotion. The war continues.
Iranian Armed Forces (Artesh and Sipah/IRGC), like other militaries, have hierarchies and succession protocols. Moreover, as I noted in “Iranian Generalship,” Iranian generals lead from the front and are accustomed to taking losses. To illustrate, in the Iran-Iraq War (1980–88), Iranians lost >100 generals. In the twenty-year GWOT, however, US lost one general—a REMF who was unlucky and got himself shot while doing REMF stuff.
Unintended Consequences
Assassinations of HN commanders, including two Haqqani brothers, allowed Sirajuddin Haqqani to seize control of HN. Sirajuddin began using suicide bombings, which HN had previously avoided.
All of the generals assassinated in June and probably most of the general assassinated on 28 Feb 2026 were veterans of the brutal Iran-Iraq War. They were scarred and abhorred war; hence their frequent urging of “patience” and “restraint.” The deceased generals devised the concept of “strategic patience,” which transformed to “strategic deterrence” following the 1 April 2024 bombing of Iran’s embassy in Damascus. The next generation of generals is more aggressive; hence their swift pivot to “strategic offense.” Is this what Israel and US intended?
I think Ayatollah Khamenei was the “kinder, gentler” choice for Suprement Leader of IRI. What comes after him may be worse (or much worse). Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, about whom I know little, is said to be tough: closer to the Khomeinist ideological camp than Khamenist ideological camp. For those who eagerly promote the assassination of Vladimir Putin, it may serve to note that he’s “warm and cuddly” compared to potential successors lurking in the Kremlin.
The heinous nature of Ayatollah Khamenei’s killing has generated outrage, not just in Iran, but in the Shia world. We have seen anti-US surges in Pakistan and Iraq (US Embassy is still mobbed). Outrage will grow. It will subside in time, but never evaporate, i.e., the assassination of a respected Shia cleric will have ramifications for US policies in the Islamic World for decades.
You must be logged in to post a comment.