Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Fork in the Road?

A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?

Democratization of Warfare: Iran Edition

I published an essay “Democratization of Warfare: Abrams vs. Ghoul” in March. This update relates to the impending clash between Iran and Israel/U.S. Will Iran be able to overwhelm Israeli and American defenses?

Ruminations on Iran’s Retaliation

Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.

Kiev’s Kursk Incursion and Implications for Iran

Vladimir Putin is incensed by Kiev’s recent incursion into Kursk, which surely had NATO/US support. He has pledged to support America’s enemies. If NATO/US can supply Ukraine and say, “it doesn’t matter how they [the weapons] are used,” Russia can also supply “someone with something [and say] we do not control anything.” Game on!

On Escalation Domination, High-Value Targets, and Black Swans

As we await Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, quick looks at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.

Russia-Iran Military Exchanges: Part 4

Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?

Iran’s ICBM Program

Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?