History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
US bases in West Asia cannot return to the status quo ante bellum without meaningful debates in Congress and DOD on weaknesses of air defenses, vulnerabilities of radar networks, and the exposure of US personnel to casualties. This debate is not limited to West Asia, but implicates US bases constructed to “contain Russia” and “contain China.”
Iran delivered its proposal to US via Pak; only change from first proposal is ending blockade. Iran insists on 30 days to a resolution (US wants 60 days). Trump unlikely to agree; another round of fighting is likely. IRGC training video emerged showing how they strategized about fighting US. CNN investigative report on how Iran wrecked 16 US bases. Includes note on “Iran experts” who say stupid stuff, which accounts for why US walked into the Iranian minefield.
On the night of 4-5 April, US Special Forces suffered a debacle near Isfahan. Trump claims the operation was a pilot rescue, but that’s false. His meltdowns on 5th and 6th April were a consequence of the failure of some plan. Consensus is that the failed op was to seize Iran’s enriched U-235 at Isfahan. Note: Please see essay of 8 April, “The Jews of Iran,” which has an update. Included at the end of this essay is a note covering the negotiations in Islamabad last weekend and the blockade of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz!
Trump is refusing to accept that the United States has suffered a “strategic defeat” in the war he started for Israel. BBC News just got caught trying to manufacture consent for the use of nuclear weapons on Iran. US-Israel terror campaign continues and may intensify when Trump’s “Bridge and Power Plant” deadline expires tonight. Israel is now bombing synagogues in Tehran.
The war is going swimmingly for Iran: enemy radars gone, interceptor stockpiles have fallen; Iranian missiles and drones are finding their targets with precision. US and Israel have no military targets left in Iran to strike (anything of value is below ground) and instead terror bombings à la Serbia (1999) and Iraq (1991 and 2003). Iran is sticking with game plan and relentlessly denuding region of US bases, forcing US to resort to long range bombings (from UK and CONUS). Iran’s air defenses hold. Europe feeling the heat.
No shocker. Tehran rejected Trump’s ceasefire and 15-point plan. Excerpt from Iranian state media report, link, and five conditions in the post.
Here we go again! Israel’s Channel 12 dropped their 15-point proposal just in time to move markets. Western outlets copied-and-pasted the article without questioning provenance or motive. Tehran said “US negotiating with itself.” Iran’s strategy of pushing the US out of the Mideast is advancing.
Talk about talks are a ploy to calm global energy and equity markets and to create the illusion that “peace is around the corner.” Trump’s five-day pause coincides with market close on Friday, 27 March. US and Israel are expected to begin intense operations after the close. Iran’s position has been clarified. War continues until Trump accepts reality.
Is Iran pursuing a “madman strategy”? Or do the generals have a coherent strategy that they relentlessly pursue, while pivoting and/or climbing up the escalatory ladder as circumstances warrant? For, e.g., after the South Pars gas field was bombed by US-Israel?
Report that Russia is providing ISR to Iran is poppycock. China is Iran’s trusted partner. China has 9-10x satellite fleet of Russia. Tehran knows Kremlin is untrustworthy and could turn off the switch in the middle of a war. A roundup of my essays on Iran-China cooperation in space-based intelligence technologies
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