Yemen-Ansarallah SITREP

‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ is two-months-old. It is not going well. EU plans to join the mission led by the US Navy and Royal Navy.

The Yemenis struck a British ship (‘Rubymar’) in the Gulf of Aden. The crew abandoned ship. They also struck two American ships (‘Sea Champion’ and ‘Navis Fortuna’) in the Gulf of Aden; and shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper. A good day for Ansarallah (Houthis); a not so good day for Lloyd Austin and Grant Shapps, who concocted this mission to protect Israel’s economic lifelines.

The US-led naval mission is ‘target-rich environment’ for Ansarallah. As explained earlier:

Each time Ansarallah launches a missile at a ‘blockade breaker’ ship or USN ship, US Navy ships ‘light up’ their AEGIS Combat System and launch interceptors. Each SAM launch depletes VLS silos; electronic signals emitted by USN ships provide critical electronic intelligence to Iranian intelligence gathering vessels like the Behshad in the Gulf of Aden.

There will come a point where Ansarallah will decide that a USN ship (or carrier that it is escorting) is vulnerable because VLS silos are low; that Ansarallah has sufficient electronic intelligence to employ EW to spoof AEGIS; and launch a saturation attack that depletes VLS and forces the vessel to rely on CIWS.

Ansarallah’s Long Game: The Case of HMS Diamond

We have also recently learned that Iran is supplying Ansarallah with advanced missiles, just as they are supplying Hezbollah will better missiles. On 18 February 2024 it was announced that Iran is supplying its Khordad-15 air defense system to the Lebanese and Syrian armies. Iran is upping the game.

Technological capacities of Ansarallah are improving. Strikes on USN and Royal Navy ships are quite likely. In my opinion, the weak link is the HMS Richmond, which has limited air defense capabilities. If I were to pick a target, HMS Richmond is it.