History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
In 2025 and 2026, US and Israeli wars against Iran transformed Tehran's nuclear program from transparent to highly opaque. Iran now possesses 440.9kg of scattered highly-enriched uranium, complicating potential strikes by US forces. The mention of “Pickaxe Mountain” reflects disinformation tactics employed by Israel.
Note on the Iran War, and announcement that ‘Perspectives’ now has a podcast that you can follow on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Audible, etc.
American generals have failed so badly in the Iran War that they are reduced to crowdsourcing (by email) for ideas on combatting Iran. Almost everyone (“regardless of rank”) can chime in.
US has surged men and material to the Mideast, but Trump is hesitating on escalating. There have been no attacks on Iran for two days. However, his boss is visiting the White House. Once Netanyahu disciplines his errant employee, the war will resume with great intensity. Meanwhile, Iranian media published the list of US losses of equipment over the past 15-day period.
The war on Iran picked up where it left off on 8 April, with the Iranians denuding the region of US bases, forcing the US to relocate assets to Israel and Europe. The Iranian campaign has been brilliant and will be studied in military colleges.
“The Iranian missile cities the US could not destroy” article by the Financial Times caused a stir among the unwashed, but (real) scholars of Iran knew that all underground bases were selected on geography and geology, and were impregnable. To adapt Bill Clinton’s slogan, “It’s the geology, stupid”
Trump, having spent a decade insulting Obama over JCPOA, and for sending “pallets of cash” to Iran, is in a vise. He is refusing to concede “strategic defeat” and accept Iran’s terms for peace. Meanwhile, his Israeli master insists that he continue the war, and that more US troops die for Israel. A third round of war is likely. This time, however, Iranian Armed Forces will inflict “catastrophic defeat” on the US.
US bases in West Asia cannot return to the status quo ante bellum without meaningful debates in Congress and DOD on weaknesses of air defenses, vulnerabilities of radar networks, and the exposure of US personnel to casualties. This debate is not limited to West Asia, but implicates US bases constructed to “contain Russia” and “contain China.”
Iran delivered its proposal to US via Pak; only change from first proposal is ending blockade. Iran insists on 30 days to a resolution (US wants 60 days). Trump unlikely to agree; another round of fighting is likely. IRGC training video emerged showing how they strategized about fighting US. CNN investigative report on how Iran wrecked 16 US bases. Includes note on “Iran experts” who say stupid stuff, which accounts for why US walked into the Iranian minefield.
On the night of 4-5 April, US Special Forces suffered a debacle near Isfahan. Trump claims the operation was a pilot rescue, but that’s false. His meltdowns on 5th and 6th April were a consequence of the failure of some plan. Consensus is that the failed op was to seize Iran’s enriched U-235 at Isfahan. Note: Please see essay of 8 April, “The Jews of Iran,” which has an update. Included at the end of this essay is a note covering the negotiations in Islamabad last weekend and the blockade of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz!
You must be logged in to post a comment.