Israel, like a nasty and impetuous schoolboy who committed a serious offense, fears retribution as he sits trembling outside the headmaster’s office. He knows that he will be punished for his wickedness, but he knows not the form of the headmaster’s wrath. So, he sweats and shakes in terror.
Anecdote
I attended a private boys schools where we had a terror named Archibald as our master and rugby coach. Archie, a former scrum-half, was short and stocky—as scrum-halves tend to be—bald, tough, piercing eyes, and usually seen sucking ferociously on a filterless cigarette that he held between the tips of his left thumb and forefinger. If a boy in class incurred his wrath, he would point at another student, emit a low whistle, and tell him ‘go get the cane.’ That boy would scurry to the office to get the cane, thankful that he had not incurred Archie’s wrath. Meanwhile, the ‘miscreant’ sat trembling behind his desk, grateful for the two pairs of undies he usually wore to protect his delicate bottom, but wishing he’d taken the precaution of wearing three pairs. What will Archie hand out? ‘Six of the best’? Or a number between one and six? This is Israel today. Israelis await Iran’s rough hand. They do not know where or how often it will land—but land it shall. The spoiled schoolboys are panicking. How dare anyone punish them! Attacking Israel for violating the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations is antisemitic!
Netanyahu’s Goal in Striking the Iranian Embassy
The U.S.-backed regime in Tel Aviv is losing badly on all fronts: politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily. The bombing of the Iranian diplomatic mission on 1 April with U.S.-supplied F-35 jets, U.S.-supplied ordnance, and American diplomatic and political support was to provoke Iran into attacking U.S. military assets in West Asia, and drag the U.S. into a failing war to save Netanyahu’s political life. It will not happen. Iranians are cleverer by light years than Israelis. Iran has a strategy to ‘slow boil’ the State of Israel. They will retaliate but in a manner that advances their strategy. Israelis are expecting retaliation over the next few days: IDF has cancelled weekend leave and called up air defense specialists; GPS is being spoofed; bomb shelters in Tel Aviv are opened; and colonizers are fleeing Haifa. Chatter in social media about forthcoming strikes in 48 hours, GPS spoofing, etc., is just that. Chatter. IRGC operates with patience and intelligence. They will strike when ready. Generating fear in Israel is a tactic that furthers IRGC’s operational goals. Expect IRGC to resort to psyops to foment fear and panic.
Iranian Retaliation
Will IRGC strike while Israel is at heightened alert? Where will they strike? Will there be waves of retaliatory strikes on multiple fronts? Ayatollah Khamenei said that ‘the evil Zionist regime will be punished by our courageous men,’ meaning, Iranian regular forces and/or IRGC will strike the regime; but not necessarily inside Israel. The Ayatollah’s statement does not preclude a multi-front campaign of one or more attacks over days or weeks that involve Iranian forces and members of the Axis of Resistance. Tehran informed the UN that their response to Israel’s violations of international law would be within the bounds of international law. Thus, no civilians and no embassies.
Likely targets include the Golan Heights (IDF positions but in Israeli-occupied territory), Ben Gurion Airport, Eilat Port, Ashdod Port, and Haifa Port. Attacking airports and seaports would conform with Iran’s strategy of strangling the Israeli economy. Spoofing of GPS will have limited effect: firstly, IRGC Aerospace has access to non-U.S. satellites and global positioning systems (GLONASS and BeiDou) and electronic warfare countermeasures; and secondly, newer Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles will not be affected by GPS. Get the popcorn and enjoy the show.
Perspectives 