Media and social media are buzzing about ‘imminent’ strikes by Iran, with commentators claiming that Iran will not strike because it has ‘been trying to avoid [war] for decades.’ Why has Iran avoided confrontation with Israel and United States for ‘decades’? Because IRGC was preparing for an inevitable conflict and needed time to develop its arsenal.
How it began (how it ends is a different story).
U.S.-Iran Rapprochement
Iran sought rapprochement with the U.S. in 2001. Tehran offered unqualified support to the U.S. after 9/11. Some of this is known: Maj.-Gen. Suleimani and IRGC supplied intelligence and maps that enabled CENTCOM to topple the Taliban in an operation described by an analyst as a ‘flawed masterpiece.’ Less well known is that western Afghanistan was liberated by ca. 5,000 Tajik (Sunni) mujahidin, 1,000 Hazara (Shiʿa) muj, IRGC-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), and the First Special Operational Detachment Alpha (ODA 554) of U.S. Army. That’s right. American andIranian special forces fought side-by-side to liberate western Afghanistan in Nov. 2001.
IRGC’s reward
Where was Israel when Americans and Iranians served as comrades? Plotting to derail U.S.-Iran rapprochement, start the Iraq War, then the Iran War.
IRGC and Iran got shafted by Israelis. The ‘axis of evil’ torpedo was made in Tel Aviv, primed by David Frum (one of Ariel Sharon’s acolytes), and launched by Bush on 29 Jan 2002. It changed the relationship between Iran and U.S.—as intended by Sharon, Netanyahu, et al. A stream of threats and sanctions against Iran followed from 2002 to 2024. Lindsay Graham, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, John Bolton, Donald Trump, et al. have threatened to attack Iran. John McCain sang ‘Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran’ at a campaign event in 2008. Graham recently said, ‘hit Iran now. Hit them hard.’
IRGC’s Reactions
IRGC general staff did not spend the last two decades lounging about drinking chai and smoking shisha while waiting for bombs to fall. They prepared for war. IRGC Aerospace (IRGC/A) accelerated its programs to develop Iran’s defensive triad: electronic warfare, drones, and missiles. Air defenses are critical, but IRGC/A would prefer to swiftly destroy an enemy’s ability to launch fighter-bombers and missiles. To that end, IRGC/A developed an array of ballistic missiles, most tipped with ‘Maneuverable Re-Entry Vehicle’ (MaRV) warheads, which can evade air defenses, possibly even getting beneath the ‘kill envelope’ of THAAD (Thermal High Altitude Air Defense; built by Raytheon; America’s best AD system). IRGC/A tested the Fattah-1 hypersonic missile; it can reach Tel Aviv in 400 seconds (6 mins, 40 secs). It is unstoppable.
IRGC has been patiently preparing for a war that Israel has been seeking since (at least) 29 Jan 2002. We will soon find out which of General Hajizadah’s ‘toys’ are employed by IRGC/A, what works, and what does not work.
Perspectives 