My article, Israeli Air Defenses are not ‘Untouchable,’ on how IRGC developed an impressive arsenal of drones and ballistic missiles over twenty years, is freely available at the Cradle. It shows, inter alia, how IRGC Aerospace, led by General Amir-Ali Hajizadah, patiently developed and tested technology during a two-decade period of threats and provocations by U.S. and Israel. When Israel struck the Iranian consulate on 1 April 2024, IRGC Aerospace was ready to reply. Iran easily shifted gears from ‘strategic patience’ to ‘active deterrence.’
An ‘expert’ on IRGC, Mr. Kasra Aarabi, wrote on Twitter on 2 April 2024 that people should ‘ignore all the takes by “experts” [scare quotes in original!] on how the killing of IRGC terror commander will result in direct war/strikes against Israel. The IRGC neither has the doctrine nor the capabilities for direct war with Israel…’ Oops. IRGC does have doctrines and capabilities.
This is an example of what former a U.S. Army officer termed a ‘competency crisis,’ where former generals, using their credentialed status, claim expertise; as do unqualified pundits, especially those in think-tanks, and ‘Open-Source Intelligence’ (OSINT) experts. In computer coder language, analyses supplied by ‘experts’ is GIGO: ‘Garbage-In, Garbage-Out.’ I have seen this first-hand with respect to Iraq and Afghanistan. Poor understanding of Iran and IRGC shape U.S. policies at a time where Netanyahu and Israeli radicals are trying to draw U.S. into a war with Iran. It will not end well.
Perspectives 
You must be logged in to post a comment.