Iran’s ICBM Program

Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected. It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated). Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?

Primer

Deputy general of the Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Forces [IRGC/A] Mousavi in his first publicized speech, announced that beside short-, mid- and long-range missile capabilities, his force also has advanced Iran’s intercontinental capabilities. This claim was a first for Iran and was later censored, to create plausible deniability. Iran had previously voluntarily restricted itself to a 2000 km range limit.

Details

IRGC/A’s ICBM program has been addressed by an Iranian expert at his website. For reasons unknown to me, the author has not updated details since late 2020. However, he comments on Twitter about ongoing efforts by IRGC/A. He noted that the Qaʾim-100 SLV (Satellite Launch Vehicle) placed into orbit by IRGC/A on 20 January 2024 is a “testbed” for the Qaʾim-105 ICBM. Put another way, if a SLV can be launched vertically (against gravity) to place an satellite in orbit 1,100 km above earth, a variant can be launched at a trajectory to traverse 10,000 km to the eastern seaboard of the United States, placing Washington, D.C., New York City, and Boston within range. Range would have to be increased to include cities like Atlanta and Miami.

MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction

We are back to MAD, not unlike during the Cold War, but with the U.S. possessing a greater nuclear arsenal than Iran—assuming Iran has crossed the nuclear Rubicon, which I think it has. However, Iran does not need nuclear warheads to inflict immense damage on American cities. The 400 kg warhead on Qaʾim-105, packed with high-explosives, would obliterate large sections of D.C. and NYC. I witnessed the damage to the World Trade Center and surroundings on 9/11. A single 400 kg warhead, coupled to kinetic energy, would cause terrible destruction and kill thousands of New Yorkers.

But will Washington be willing to trade NYC to strike Tehran? Charles de Gaulle addressed this point when he initiated France’s independent nuclear program:

France’s policy on the use of nuclear weapons originated with Charles de Gaulle’s conviction that in a crisis the United States policy of flexible response to Soviet attack would not insure France’s security. Under this policy, the United States would respond in steps to Soviet aggression, first using conventional forces, then short-range nuclear weapons against troops and finally long-range missiles aimed at cities.

General de Gaulle believed that the United States would not use its nuclear weapons if faced with a choice between the destruction of Western Europe and a Soviet-American missile exchange. His argument was that the United States would not risk New York or Detroit to save Hamburg or Lyons (emphasis added).

New York Times, 6 May 1981

Sacrifice NYC or DC to save Tel Aviv or Haifa? Methinks not. Iran will soon establish MAD deterrence vis-à-vis the U.S.