A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?
Scientific Report
The Tweeted report is reproduced in full.
Nuclear Weapons
In my April 2024 essay, “Iran: Crossing the Nuclear Rubicon,” I stated that Iran has probably developed nuclear devices. I am not alone in this assessment (see Tweet by William Schryver). Given Israel’s size, Iran does not need to develop many nuclear devices: one for testing—to demonstrate Iran’s membership in the “nuclear club”—and two to three to use should Israel first strike Iranian facilities with tactical nuclear weapons, or Iranian cities with strategic nuclear weapons. Moreover, 90% highly-enriched uranium (HEU = WGU) is not essential for a nuclear bomb: 60% HEU, of which Iran has sufficient quantities, is weapons-grade; 60% HEU makes for a smaller “bang” and crater. IRGC Aerospace possesses the ballistic missiles to deliver nuclear warheads.
Nuclear Talks
Why are we hearing talk from Tehran about nuclear talks? Firstly, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian (a cardiac surgeon) was elected on an economic platform. Iranians are struggling economically consequent to the “maximum pressure” sanctions imposed by Donald Trump following his unilateral withdrawal from JCPOA. Iranian voters, like American voters, “vote their pocketbooks.” Hence the election of Pezeshkian over “hardliners” Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Saeed Jalili. Secondly, Pezeshkian’s cabinet and advisors include like-minded people, viz., Foreign Minister, Dr. Abbas Aragachi, erstwhile nuclear negotiator; and VP for Strategic Affairs, Dr. Javad Zarif, the former FM under whom JCPOA was implemented. Aragachi and Zarif are invested in JCPOA; and diplomats tend to believe in diplomacy. But as one Iranian commentator asked Messrs. Pezeshkian, Aragachi, and Zarif, “what if the U.S. does not wish to re-open talks”? Indeed, a belligerent pro-Israel essay argues for war with Iran:
Iran is not being cowed or deterred. Khamenei is merely playing for time until he can achieve nuclear weapons status. We are well past the point of no return. No amount of money, sanctions-relief or delay will prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The Hill, 29 August 2024
There is belief in certain quarters of Washington and Tel Aviv that now is the time to strike Iran. The Pentagon has assembled a large fleet in the Gulf of Oman and the Mediterranean; and has land-based assets in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar. The Hill report claimed, “Iran’s air defense networks can be penetrated on demand, a weakness Israel exposed in April when it took out a single air defense system defending Natanz.” It is clear to Tehran that Washington and Tel Aviv are “itching for a fight.” Why, therefore, give up its nuclear weapons?
Analysis
In my estimation, Ayatollah Khamenei’s “greenlighting” of new nuclear talks is a nod to the wishes of the electorate, but no more. Firstly, it is hard to imagine IRGC surrendering its most valuable means of deterrence against Israeli and American threats, keeping in mind that these threats are not recent, but have flowed regularly since 9/11. Secondly Tehran has learned through experience that the U.S. will renege on its agreements, just as it did with JCPOA. Only a treaty between Iran and U.S. that is ratified by the Senate under the Treaty Clause of the U.S. Constitution (Art. II, § 2, ¶ 2), will guarantee the agreement. Hence the warning from Khamenei to Pezeshkian and his Cabinet: “Do not trust the enemy.” Thirdly, Americans have discovered since 7 October 2023 that the Biden Administration and U.S. Congress are dominated by pro-Israeli Americans (many of whom are dual-citizens); and AIPAC controls officials and politicians. American patriots cynically refer to the U.S Government as ZOG: “Zionist Occupied Government.” Tehran is aware of this.
Any new U.S.-Iran agreement must have Tel Aviv’s blessings. Ayatollah Ali Khomeini knows that it is pointless talking to the monkey instead of the organ grinder. The organ grinder, however, is not ready for diplomacy: he wants the U.S. to go to war with Iran.
Perspectives 
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