Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused negligible damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that a harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.
Escalations and Retaliations
Israel and its enablers frame Israeli escalations as retaliations; and Iranian retaliations as escalations. The timeline for the exchanges between Israel and Iran is straightforward:
1. On 1 April, Israel attacked Iran’s diplomatic facility in Damascus. Sixteen people died: seven IRGC personnel (including Brig.-Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi); one Iranian civilian; five Syrian militiamen; one Lebanese citizen (Hizballah); and two Syrian civilians (mother and child). IDF used US-supplied F-35 jets, bombs, and intelligence for the air strike.
2. On 13/14 April, Iran retaliated with Operation True Promise I. The strike was telegraphed to allow Israel and its allies to intercept drones and missiles; and tailored to demonstrate Iranian military capabilities, but to not inflict major damage or cause casualties.
3. On 31 July, Israel murdered a diplomatic guest in Tehran—Ismail Haniyeh, who was invited to attend President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. Israel could have assassinated Haniyeh in Doha (Qatar), just as they assassinated Mahmoud al-Mabhouh—co-founder of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades—in Dubai (UAE) on 19 January 2010. Killing Haniyeh while he was a guest of Pezeshkian was intended to provoke Iran: equivalent to an outsider coming into your home and murdering your guest. Iranian honor was at stake. This critical cultural tenet was known to political and defense officials in Tel Aviv.
4. From August 1 to September 27, Israel’s allies (US, UK, EU) dangled a Gaza ceasefire agreement before Iran and asked Tehran not to strike back at Israel. Tehran agreed to delay its retaliation in order to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. It is possible that Iran would have cancelled Operation True Promise II if a permanent ceasefire had been reached; and food and medical aid started flowing into Gaza. But US and its UK/EU allies were only deceiving Iran to buy Israel time.
5. During the UN General Assembly, 20-27 September 2024, Pezeshkian and Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, held talks at ministerial, prime ministerial, presidential, and diplomatic levels with a slew of UN members from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe to (a) alleviate tensions between Tehran and the “collective west”; and (b) to bring about a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
6. While Iranian diplomacy was ongoing, the US supplied Israel with hundreds of bunker-buster JDAMs; and other explosives, ammunitions, and weapons systems. Biden has paused transfers of JDAMs in May, but supplied them specifically for the targeting of Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah.
7. On 27 September 2024, while inside the UN building, Netanyahu ordered the air strike on Beirut that killed Nasrallah and IRGC’s Brig.-Gen. Abbas Nilfaroushan. Eighty bunker-buster JDAMs (ca. 85 tons of high explosives) supplied by US were used to devastate an entire neighborhood of Beirut. Hundreds, possibly thousands, of Lebanese civilians died in the bombing (the death toll is still not clear). In addition to bombs and jets, the U.S. supplied intelligence to IDF.
8. On 1 October 2024, Iran launched Operation True Promise II. It was successful, with an estimated 90% of IRGC’s ballistic missiles penetrating Israel’s air defenses and striking multiple military targets. No Israeli casualties were reported by the State of Israel.
9. On 25/26 October 2024, Israel “retaliated” against Iran. The mission achieved negligible success, but five Iranian citizens died. Four were members of the Iranian Army.1
Treachery by Israel and US
Netanyahu’s and Biden’s serial treachery since 7 October 2023 is evident to Iranians, observers, and Israelis. Thousands of Israelis have been protesting for the release of hostages and calling for fresh elections. Yesterday, hundreds of Israeli protesters called for an end to genocide (I believe this is the first time Israelis have protested the genocide). Netanyahu has repeatedly thwarted (a) agreements to release the hostages held by Hamas; and (b) to reach a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
Since the 25/26 October attacks on Iranian soil, Israel’s enablers in the collective west have been begging Iran not to respond. For example, PM Keir Starmer reiterated the tiresome mantra, “Israel’s right to self-defence”; and that “like every other sovereign country in the world, the state of Israel has the right and the duty to respond.” Apparently, only Israel has the “right to self-defense”:
“I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. I’m equally clear that we need to avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to show restraint. Iran should not respond.” Keir Starmer,2 PM of Great Britain
It is manifest that Israel and US are not interested in diplomatic solutions to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, nor an end to the genocide being perpetrated against the Palestinian people. Leaders of the “collective west,” principally, US, UK, France, Canada, and Germany, support every action taken by Israel—including genocide by famine, disease, bombs, and bullets—but Iran, Syria, and Russia do not have the “right to self-defense.”3
Thoughts
The lessons of Operation True Promise I and Operation True Promise II have evidently not been absorbed by Israel and its American, British, and European enablers. To terminate the cycle of strikes and counter-strikes; fully-establish Iranian dominance; and compel Israel’s enablers to the negotiating table in good faith, Iran must deliver a harsh blow to Israel. Operation True Promise III will have to be calibrated by IRGC: it must hurt the Israelis sufficiently to end the tit-for-tat cycle, but not so hard that a scared and angry Netanyahu resorts to using tactical nuclear devices against Iranian nuclear and/or military facilities. A regional war is not to be feared. I cannot elaborate on this point here, but will say that only the US and Israel need fear a regional war.
One possible target includes elements of IDF’s integrated air defenses in the north, especially the Iron Dome system. This would leave northern settlements and Haifa exposed to relentless pummeling by Hizballah’s missiles, and undermine attempts by Israel to return settlers to the north.
There is talk—albeit in informed circles—that IDF attack aircraft, refueling aircraft, and AWACs will be targeted in Operation True Promise III. This would serve to degrade IDF’s strongest asset: superior air power and ability to strike targets at longer ranges (i.e., Iran). Degradation of IDF’s air power would benefit civilians in Lebanon who are being subjected to indiscriminate bombings under IDF’s Dahiya Doctrine—destruction of whole neighborhoods and slaughter of thousands of civilians. Strikes on Israeli airfields would likely involve cluster munitions delivered by IRGC’s Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile. Khorramshahr-4 can deliver nuclear warheads (assuming Iran has any).
An imperative for striking Israel is honor and morale of the Iranian Army (a force distinct from IRGC). Four young men of the Army (“Artesh”) died defending the Motherland. They deserve to be avenged, just as IRGC avenged the deaths of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Abbas Nilfaroushan, and other IRGC men killed by Israel in Damascus and Beirut. It sends a critical message to the Armed Forces of the I.R. of Iran that their lives are just as important as IRGC lives. It would behoove Tehran to allow Artesh to participate in the forthcoming operation against Israel.
- The best riff on the failed strike is, “Israel reeling after attack on Iran ends in humiliating failure.” ↩︎
- Starmer is probably the most unpopular PM in recent British history. A wag said of him, “The higher the monkey climbs the tree, the more you see of his arse.” ↩︎
- Perhaps the “collective west” does not see their enemies as “sovereign countr[ies] …with right to self-defense”? They certainly do not see Palestinians as human beings. Evidently, only Jews can be victims of terrorism and genocide. ↩︎
Perspectives 
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