Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.
Background
The story in multiple media outlets places the increase within the context of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel. However, this is a long overdue increase. A large chunk of the budget increase will go towards modernizing Iran’s aging air force.
Geography
Iran is huge: 1,648,195 km2 (636,372 mi2). The extent of its land borders with seven countries (Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, and Turkmenistan) plus the Nakhchivan enclave total 5,894 km (3,662 mi). Coastlines (Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf) amount to 2,815 km (1,749 mi). Neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, UAE, and Afghanistan, require additional vigilance by Iranian security forces. The map overlay conveys the size of Iran relative to Europe. Iran has a large area and thousands of miles of coastlines and borders to defend
Population
Iran population as of summer 2024 was 90 million. The anticipated military budget would amount to c. $255 per capita (nominal GDP is $5,310; PPP is $21,220). The budget is c. 1.6% of (estimated) GDP for the current year (1403/2024–25).
Natural Resources and Iranian Industry
Iran has natural resources apart from oil and gas; for example, iron ore, lead, zinc, copper, uranium, titanium, and gold. Iranian steel and aluminum industries are robust. The above noted minerals—among many other minerals found in Iran; and industries such as steel and aluminum, have military use. Sanctions do not deprive the indigenous armaments industry of indispensable (dual-use) minerals, factories, and technical expertise. Iran’s superlative ballistic and cruise missile program, and diverse array of drones, illustrates this truth.
Value for Money
It is not worth comparing Iran’s proposed military budget to published military budgets of individual NATO countries, Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. This is because all NATO countries, Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia depend heavily on American military equipment, which is priced to generate exorbitant profits for the military-industrial complex. An additional factor is that the Iranians, like the Russians, are getting excellent value for their investments. Expensive NATO equipment is being destroyed in Ukraine by Russian and Iranian equipment that cost nothing; for example, ten-million dollar Abrams tanks are being shredded by $500 drones. Finally, as we saw with Operation True Promise I, Israel and its allies expended billions of dollars to intercept a bunch of old drones and missiles that cost Tehran, perhaps, $500,000? In Operation True Promise, billion dollar American and Israeli integrated air defense systems failed to prevent Iran from riding roughshod over Israel.
Perspectives 
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