During his first term, Trump instituted belligerent policies toward Iran. In the upcoming True Promise III strike by Iran, Tehran will seek to hurt Israel badly; and subsequently present Trump with two options: deal (to save Israel) or escalation and regional war. Will he choose wisely?
Trump I
Trump brought into his administration certifiable lunatics (e.g., John Bolton) and Evangelical fanatics (e.g., Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo); and embraced Zionist zealots Sheldon Adelson, Netanyahu, et al. These associations led him to pursue detrimental policies: “maximum pressure” sanctions against Iran and the murder of Haji Qasem Suleimani (3 Jan 2020). Iran did not fold under threats, but ramped up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and accelerated development of an ICBM program. In anticipation of a Trump victory, Iran has hinted that its defense postures are changing. People are policy is a popular expression. Trump II will depend on who he hires for posts as National Security Advisor, CIA Director, and Secretary of Defense. Trump acknowledged that Bolton was a lunatic and “dope” during his interview with Tucker Carlson, but Trump re-embraced Mike Pompeo, who could be tapped as Secretary of Defense.
Trump II
Trump takes office 20 January 2025. Netanyahu wants the United States to join Israel in its war with Iran. In my view, Iran will strike Israel—possibly more than once—between 6 Nov 2024 and inauguration day in such manner that Israel and United States will be left with two choices: negotiate a peace treaty or launch a full-scale war. If Trump wants to “end wars” and focus on domestic policies, Trump will have to choose between a war that plunges the global economy into chaos or reach an agreement with Iran.
Perspectives 