Trump’s nominations are MIGA (“Make Israel Great Again”) zealots who harbor hawkish anti-Iran, anti-Russia and anti-China sentiments. Trump Administration II will fortify the Iran-Russia-China “Tripartite Alliance.” Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran realize that “we must all hang together or we will all hang separately.”
Trump’s Nominations
Nominations announced to-date signal the incoming administration’s directions. Marco Rubio (Sec. of State) is owned by AIPAC, and anti-China and anti-Iran; Peter Hegseth (Sec. of Defense) is a Christian nationalist who boasts a Crusader tattoo and harbors rabidly anti-Iran and anti-Muslim views; Kristi Noem (Sec. of Homeland Security) is MIGA and anti-Muslim; John Ratcliffe (Dir. CIA) is anti-China and considers it “national security threat no.1”; Matt Waltz (National Security Advisor) is allegedly an expert on the “threats posed by China, Russia, and Iran.” Other appointments include Christian Zionist Mike Huckabee (US Amb. to Israel)—“there is no such thing as a Palestinian”; and Jewish Zionist Steven Witkoff as “U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East.” A truism in Washington is that “personnel is policy.” Tulsi Gabbard (DNI), however, bears watching: she held views on Russia that got her branded by Ukro-fanbois as a “Russian agent” (how quaintly original). She was critical of Trump’s Iran policies and condemned his unlawful killing of Qasem Suleimani.
The Tripartite Alliance
I have written about the Tripartite Alliance. Cursory looks at what these appointments and Trump’s stated positions mean for the three members of the Alliance.
Russia
Trump believes that he can end the Ukraine War in a day by threatening Russia. If peace talks are convened, the Kremlin will politely participate, but the SMO will continue at the pace and tempo determined by the Russian Armed Forces. Like with the Doha “peace talks” conducted under Trump I, where the Taliban talked while continuing military operations, Russia will talk until the SMO has achieved its objectives. The Kremlin has learned from previous negotiations that U.S./NATO will not adhere to agreements (e.g., Minsk I and Minsk II). It will not pause the SMO. An unequivocal Russian victory will signal the demise of NATO, and embarrass the U.S. by demonstrating that (a) financial and military support by U.S./NATO failed to defeat Russia on the battlefield; and (b) Washington does not have the diplomatic clout to impose on Moscow a peace settlement favorable to Ukraine and U.S./NATO. Apart from raising Russia’s stature in the Global South, an unambiguous Russian victory bodes ill for NATO’s future: its members will question the cost and value of an alliance that failed to defeat Russia. Indeed, Russia has been embittered and strengthened by NATO’s aggression (“don’t poke the bear”). European states will temper hostility towards Russia once U.S./NATO are defeated, and renew economic and political ties with Russia. The “Baltic Chihuahuas”—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—will find it expedient to quit yapping at their neighbor from behind Washington’s skirts and accept Russian suzerainty. The Chihuahuas will be expelled from NATO.
Iran
The greatest threat facing Iran is not Israel or U.S. but “reformist” politicians who believe they can negotiate with the U.S. and give away Iran’s nuclear assets in exchange for vague promises. They have learned nothing: firstly, Obama gave Tehran zero benefits despite its compliance with JCPOA; secondly, Trump withdrew unilaterally from JCPOA in 2018 and threated USA’s vassal states in EU to not comply with JCPOA. The “Three Amigos,” President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, and Jawad Zarif (the principal Iranian architect of JCPOA), dream of a new deal with the U.S. Perhaps they will realize that it is impossible to negotiate with the incoming administration, which includes individuals who considered JCPOA akin to “marching Israelis ‘to the door of the oven’.” IRGC leaders and Ayatollah Khamenei, however, are not naïve. They will assuredly keep the Three Amigos on tight leashes and allow IRGC to conduct foreign policy.
China
Beijing will brace for tariffs, sanctions, and increased U.S. military support for Taiwan and U.S. military provocations in the China Sea. But Beijing will not be passive. Beijing, like Moscow, knows that the U.S. must have its spine broken through defeats in the Middle East and Ukraine. Russia is a “battering ram” against U.S. and NATO aggression in Europe; Iran is a “battering ram” against U.S. in West Asia (Middle East). Beijing knows that if the U.S. is humiliated by Russia in the Ukraine War and expelled from West Asia by Iran, Taiwan will be vulnerable. Taipei will be amenable to negotiations with Beijing on peaceful reunification. Beijing, therefore, will expand—covertly and overtly—its economic and military exchanges with Tehran and Moscow.
Closing Remarks
A former CIA analyst observed that the Trump II foreign policy team will “double down on stupid on Ukraine, the Middle East, and China.” Perfect summary. Russia and China are too powerful for the U.S. to challenge militarily. Expect the MIGA Gang and Tel Aviv to ignite war with Iran—the ostensible “weak link.” It will not end well for the U.S. and Israel. Iran’s Operation True Promise III is pending. Tehran is likely to use TP3 to demonstrate that Iran is a near-peer military power.
Perspectives 
You must be logged in to post a comment.