History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Trump, having spent a decade insulting Obama over JCPOA, and for sending “pallets of cash” to Iran, is in a vise. He is refusing to concede “strategic defeat” and accept Iran’s terms for peace. Meanwhile, his Israeli master insists that he continue the war, and that more US troops die for Israel. A third round of war is likely. This time, however, Iranian Armed Forces will inflict “catastrophic defeat” on the US.
US bases in West Asia cannot return to the status quo ante bellum without meaningful debates in Congress and DOD on weaknesses of air defenses, vulnerabilities of radar networks, and the exposure of US personnel to casualties. This debate is not limited to West Asia, but implicates US bases constructed to “contain Russia” and “contain China.”
The war is going swimmingly for Iran: enemy radars gone, interceptor stockpiles have fallen; Iranian missiles and drones are finding their targets with precision. US and Israel have no military targets left in Iran to strike (anything of value is below ground) and instead terror bombings à la Serbia (1999) and Iraq (1991 and 2003). Iran is sticking with game plan and relentlessly denuding region of US bases, forcing US to resort to long range bombings (from UK and CONUS). Iran’s air defenses hold. Europe feeling the heat.
Here we go again! Israel’s Channel 12 dropped their 15-point proposal just in time to move markets. Western outlets copied-and-pasted the article without questioning provenance or motive. Tehran said “US negotiating with itself.” Iran’s strategy of pushing the US out of the Mideast is advancing.
Report that Russia is providing ISR to Iran is poppycock. China is Iran’s trusted partner. China has 9-10x satellite fleet of Russia. Tehran knows Kremlin is untrustworthy and could turn off the switch in the middle of a war. A roundup of my essays on Iran-China cooperation in space-based intelligence technologies
In 4Q25, PLA parked two “Signals Intelligence” (SIGINT) satellites over Mideast to harvest electronic emissions. MizarVision images that caused an internet stir are from China’s Jilin-1 imaging satellites and released by Beijing to message US and Israel that China is watching, and therefore, Iran is watching every move they make.
A hasty roundup for those not following the right Twitter/X and Telegram channels. The war is going swimmingly for US and Israel. Iranian civilians and infrastructure are being targeted by the frustrated enemy, but (1) US bases in Persian Gulf, Jordan, and Iraq are disappearing; (2) all US (THAAD & non-THAAD) radars are gone (= US & Israel are blind); (3) interceptor stocks are dwindling: “Israel’s skies are our highway” (= Iranian missiles and drones freely passing). Israel has imposed strict censorship; and satellite companies like Planet Labs have embargoed release of images for two weeks. But China is releasing images.
Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.
Iran has access to China wide-ranging satellite network. The network delivers all-weather, day and night imaging (stills and video), SIGINT, and real-time updates on locations of aircraft and vessels. Real-time ELINT is indispensable for successful strikes.
China’s satellite network provides Iran with 24/7/365 coverage and real-time updates: SIGINT, terrain mapping, telemetry; radar, optical, and infrared all-weather/day & night imaging, allowing Iran to precisely strike Israeli and U.S. targets. No China, no “boom, boom, Tel Aviv!”
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