Updated 17 Nov 2024
Updated 17 Nov 2024 with two new video links and commentary: Former Iranian FM Kamal Kharrazi stated that Tehran reserves the right to revise its nuclear doctrine if the country faces an “existential threat;” that Iran has voluntarily restricted the range of its ballistic missiles out of respect for “European concerns”; however, since Europe does not respect Iran’s security concerns, Tehran need not “be bound by their sensitivities.” Ayatollah Khamenei sent an enigmatic tweet: “We will definitely do everything necessary to prepare the Iranian nation for confronting the Arrogant Powers [plural].”
Kamal Kharrazi
Kharrazi was Iran’s foreign minister (1997–2005). After the 9/11 attacks, he spearheaded Iran’s commitment to provide the U.S. with “unconditional” support in destroying al-Qaida, invading Afghanistan, and establishing a stable government in Kabul. Brig.-Gen. Qasem Suleimani, head of IRGC intelligence for Iraq and Afghanistan, supplied intelligence to U.S. on Taliban; and IRGC forces fought alongside U.S. Delta Force and British SAS to liberate western Afghanistan. Ten weeks later, Iran was rewarded by the U.S. with sanctions and threats, and labeled founding member of the “Axis of Evil.” Kharrazi is an advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei. He is well-aware of Washington’s treachery; his former deputy, Muhammad Jawad Zarif—who later became Foreign Minister (2013–2021)—was an architect of the JCPOA that Trump annulled.
Kharrazi, like a majority of powerful policymakers in Iran, no longer sees the U.S. as a viable diplomatic partner. Moreover, Iranian policymakers are horrified by the unqualified support that Israel has received from the U.S., UK, and EU for the genocide of Palestinians. Influential Iranians hold the view that if Israel attacks Iran with nuclear weapons, the “collective west” will support Israel. His comments in the interview of 1 Nov 2024 with the Lebanese journal, al-Mayadeen, should be interpreted in this context. His two central statements (see Tehran Times; and video below):
(1) On missile ranges: “Iran no longer feels obliged to consider European concerns…Iran’s missile capabilities are evident, and if Europe continues to overlook our red lines, we see no need to be bound by their sensitivities.”
(2) On nuclear weapons: “Iran has respected the Leader’s fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons, but if the survival of Iran comes under serious threat, we reserve the right to reconsider.”
Ayatollah Khamenei
Ayatollah K’s tweet follows his speech of 1 Nov, where he promised the military “everything “ it needed “militarily and politically” to defend Iran. The tweet elicited a reply tweet from an Iranian aerospace engineer, who released the first video below with the comment, “possible meaning [of AK’s tweet].” Two other videos were released.
The three videos are linked below.
Three Videos on Iranian ICBM and Nuclear Postures
Comments (Updated 17 Nov 2024)
Part One: Note the shift in Iranian policy once JCPOA collapsed under Trump (2018). The “2025 posture” anticipates Trump II. Extending the range of missiles from ca. 2,000 km to ICBM range (i.e., > 10,000 km) is explicit, viz., targeting ten American cities. The nuclear program is addressed, specifically, the trigger for the nuclear devices; warhead designs; enrichment to weapons grade; and time needed to manufacture ten nuclear weapons.
Part Two: Discussion of Soviet and American ICBM technologies and strategies; how Iran is learning and deviating from Cold War approaches; for example, focusing on miniaturization and the mobility of their ICBM systems. Conversion of Qaʾim-100 SLV (Satellite Launch Vehicle) into ICBM (Qaʾim-105) carrying a survivable MaRV (Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle = warhead).
Part Three: Nuclear war scenario. Breakout times for Iran, construction in various locations of ten nuclear devices; targeting of ten American cities using mobile ICBM launchers.
Remarks
It is well known that Iran has an ICBM program (see my essay Iran’s ICBM Program). As for the claim that Iran will build nuclear weapons in hardened facilities in the course of days or weeks should it be attacked, this is just misdirection to avoid stating that Iran has nuclear weapons. I hold the view that Iran crossed the nuclear Rubicon. Nobody in IRGC is foolhardy as to believe that they will have days, much less weeks, to build nuclear weapons should their facilities come under sustained attack by the U.S. and Israel. I interpret the statements by Kharrazi and Khamenei, and three informative videos as messages to the West that Iran’s defensive postures have already shifted.
Perspectives 