New York Times: “Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia,” examines Operation Rough Rider— the failed air campaign—against Yemen. Key takeaways vis-à-vis US-Israel air campaign against Iran. Gist: Iran holds the “trump” cards.
Preamble
An archived webpage of the article is here (no paywall). Worth reading, with the caveat that NYT is infected with “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” Nonetheless, it is a reliable outlet for intelligence and military communities to express their views on/off the record.
Key Takeaways
1. Area Denial/Anti-Access and Air Superiority:
“Trump wanted to see results within 30 days of the initial strikes two months ago…But the results were not there. The United States had not even established air superiority over the Houthis.”
NY Times
If the US cannot establish air superiority, much less air supremacy over Yemen, a country geographically smaller and militarily weaker than Iran, how will it establish air superiority or air supremacy over Iran?
In “30 days, the Houthis shot down seven American MQ-9 drones [and several] F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses…”
NY Times
Yemeni air defenses (AD) have destroyed 27 MQ-9 Reaper drones since Biden initiated the campaign against Yemen; and “painted” F-16s and F-35 “stealth” fighter jets (i.e., Yemeni AD locked onto the aircraft, but were unable to complete the kill chain). Iranian AD should have no difficulty in completing the kill chain. Stealth is overrated (see, e.g., here, here, here). Stealth, an analyst noted, is 80% marketing, 20% everything else. Iran has a robust Area Denial/Anti Access strategy.
Update 14 May 2025: Yemeni Military source claims: "An F-35 fighter jet was forced to perform evasive maneuvers to avoid being struck by Yemeni surface-to-air missiles. The missiles came close enough that the F-35 had to take action to evade them."
2. Campaign and Endurance
“General Kurilla [CENTCOM commander-in-chief] proposed an eight- to 10-month campaign in which Air Force and Navy warplanes would take out Houthi air defense systems.”
NY Times
8-10 months to “take out” Yemeni AD? How many decades to “take out” Iranian AD?
“So many precision munitions were being used, especially advanced long-range ones, that some Pentagon contingency planners were growing increasingly concerned about overall stocks…..” Chairmen (past and present) of Joint Chiefs of Staff said Yemen campaign “would drain military resources away from the Asia-Pacific region.”
NY Times
U.S. munitions are low after bombing Yemen and supplying Ukraine and Israel. What will happen if U.S. goes to war with Iran? Munitions production capacities in U.S. are abysmal (cf. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea lead in munitions production).
Near losses of fighter jets made “real the possibility of American casualties.”
NY Times
If U.S. afraid of losing a pilot or two, will it risk losing tens of thousands of Servicemen when Navy assets (Carrier Strike Groups) in the Red Sea/Arabian Sea, and U.S. bases in UAE, KSA, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Qatar are destroyed by Iran?
“By the end of the first 30 days of the campaign, the cost had exceeded $1 billion…”
NY Times
The financial cost of the Iran War will be stupendous.
3. Intelligence and Targeting
“Saudi officials backed General Kurilla’s plan and provided a target list of 12 Houthi senior leaders whose deaths, they said, would cripple the movement. But the United Arab Emirates, another powerful U.S. ally in the region, was not so sure. The Houthis had weathered years of bombings by the Saudis and the Emiratis.”
NY Times
CENTCOM used a ten-year old target bank supplied by KSA, which even UAE did not value. U.S. was so desperate for intelligence that it relied on brOSINT accounts for targeting data. U.S. jets bombed civilian infrastructure and some fixed military assets, killing hundreds, if not thousands, of civilians. Most Yemeni assets of value are mobile or in hardened underground facilities.
Iran is 636,372 sq. mi. (1,648,195 sq. km), and 17th largest country in the world, with widely-dispersed assets that are mobile or in hardened underground facilities. While U.S. and Israel have better intelligence on Iran than they do on Yemen, what U.S. intel does not know about Iran should terrify CENTCOM.
4. U.S. Leadership
“Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine [was concerned about] extended campaign against the Houthis … His predecessor, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr shared that view …” but “Kurilla had been gunning for the Houthis since November 2023…”
NY Times
Sense prevails in JCS, but Kurilla’s “gunning” for Yemen smacks of animosity not logic.
“Also skeptical of a longer campaign were [VP] JD Vance; [DNI], Tulsi Gabbard; [SECSTATE] Marco Rubio; and [White House] chief of staff, Susie Wiles. [SECDEF] Hegseth, people with knowledge of the discussions said, went back and forth, arguing both sides.”
NY Times
If political and military leadership are divided on an extended campaign against the “lowly Houthis,” what are their views of attacking Iran?
Conclusions
Military logic and intelligence appraisals may argue against an air campaign against Iran, but U.S. foreign policy is dominated by a foreign government. AIPAC, Evangelicals, and other members of the “Israel Lobby” may push U.S. to war with Iran. But if they do, the odds strongly favor Iran defeating the U.S. and Israel militarily; and crashing the U.S. economy in the process.
Perspectives 
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