Iran-Israel War | Day 5 SITREP

Netanyahu begs for help. Trump has mental breakdown on Twitter. Israel AD collapsing. Iran keeps on ticking. Mood in Israel foul; patriotism surges in Iran. Americans opposed to war with Iran, but Israel Lobby poised to receive the Iran War they purchased.

UK’s “The Daily Tripe”: “How tiny Israel brought Iran to its knees,” but plucky little Israel, after just two days of being gently slapped by Iran, was begging for Trump’s help. Trump is poised to join the party. Situation report (SITREP), current as of Wed., 18 June, p.m.

Israeli Air Defenses

Iran has control of Israel’s skies. Volleys have ranged from 200 to 30 (1st to 5th wave; no data on last five waves), prompting pro-Israel writers to claim “Iran is running out of missiles.” The reduction, however, is because Iran has struck critical industrial and military targets (four IDF airbases; Haifa port and refinery), and is making precision strikes on “high-value targets” (HVT), like Mossad HQ, IDF MOD, SIGINT Unit 8200, etc. Satellite imagery of targets, if released to the public, is blurred by Israel-friendly companies (Maxar and Google).

Iran’s focus is to degrade Israel’s AD and deplete stocks of interceptors. Some AD batteries have been destroyed. Once AD is depleted/degraded (Washington Post claims 10-12 days), Iran sends in kamikaze drones, most to keep Iron Dome occupied (it is ideal for such activity), and IDF and Allied fighter jets scrambing and busy, while remaining kamikazes visit their targets.

Escalation Ladder

There are manifold industrial and military targets in Iran’s “target bank,” but held in reserve because Iran is calibrating its responses. Tehran will not ascend the “escalation ladder” rapidly; it is basing responses on Israel’s actions. Israel is 22,145 sq. km (including bodies of water), but if Negev Desert is stripped away, population, national infrastructure, economic, and military targets are concentrated within 8,670 sq. km. (including urban centers), making targeting easier (cf. Iran, 1,648,195 sq. km; dispersed military-industrial centers).

Israel tried to provoke Iran into attacking “counter-value” (civilian) targets by bombing IRIB (state TV HQ), hospitals, apartment buildings, ambulances, Iranian Red Crecent, etc., but Tehran did not bite. Tehran’s response to the IRIB bombing was to target Israeli TV networks with cyber attacks. If Iran wanted to emulate Israel’s actions, Tel Aviv’s skyscrapers will fall.

Iran Air Defenses

The mood is terrible. Millions of Israelis slept in shelters last night, a nightly event. Tel Aviv and Haifa turned off CCTV; banned journalists from reporting on impacts and citizens from sharing videos on social media. Journalists are banned from Haifa, with one team of journalists arrested in Tel Aviv for filming impacts. Not the actions of a winning team.

Netanyahu took the Israeli population hostage by prohibiting them from leaving Israel. Airlines, once flights resume, are only allowed to board tourists: about two million Israelis hold dual-citizenship (viz., US, CAN, UK, EU, RUS, former USSR). If they flee, Israel’s economy, which is sinking—and will only worsen during a protracted war—may collapse. Israelis are chartering boats/yachts to Cyprus to circumvent the ban. IDF reservists/callups are barred (of course) from leaving.

I was surprised this report from Israel by BBC Persian was missed by BBC’s Middle East news chief (the Israeli, Raffi Berg), who BBC staffers claim is censoring content.

Mood in Iran

Iranians are anxious but mostly united. As I wrote, the dastardly nature of Israel’s actions and lack of condemnation by RBO® has fueled anger in Iran. The G-7 statement supportive of Israel’s aggression, and Reichsführer Merz’s statement, “Israel is doing the dirty work for all of us,” benefits national unity. Iranians know RBO® does not care for, or respect them.

In contrast to Israel, damage in Iran, and deaths and injuries to Iranians, is widely-publicized by media and social media. Images and stories of personal losses infuriate Iranians, increase patriotism, and solidify national unity.

Iranians are leaving Tehran, but it is not a panic exodus as claimed by propagandists. Firstly, Israel’s Def. Min. Katz threatened the residents of Tehran with annihilation; Trump’s screed followed. It is logical for Iranians to accept at face value (i) a genocidal state’s threats; (ii) diatribes of a lunatic with nuclear weapons. Secondly, given the centralization of businesses and government offices in Tehran—hence over-population—a significant proportion of Tehranis are not “natives,” but originate in cities, towns, and villages throughout Iran. They will live with relatives until the war ends.

Official U.S. Entry into Iran-Israel War

Trump had an epic meltdown on Twitter (June 17th). He threatened the assassination of a head of state (Khamenei), genocide of civilians (Tehran), rejected any future diplomacy, and demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” The episodes elicited murmurs about invocation of the 25th Amendment (removal of president for mental incapacity).

It is likely that AIPAC, Israelis, and neocons will get their long-desired Iran War despite the absence of support in polls. The U.S. has been covertly involved in the Iran-Israel War since before June 13 (Israel is fully dependent on U.S.-supplied ELINT, ISR, satellites, refueling aircraft, ordnance, etc. for targeting Iran). An overt entry will result in retaliations by Iran that include the targeting of U.S. bases in the Middle East, and the sealing of economic chokepoint (viz., Hormuz and Red Sea). My sense is that the U.S. and Israel will not achieve their military-political aims, but both will pay heavy prices.

If any good comes of a U.S.-Iran War, it is that Americans will learn geography, and how to correctly pronounce “Iran” (hint: it’s not “Eye-Ran”).