Israel wants end to war; Iran plans to prolong war. Israel cannot survive without Allied help; but Iran has prepared to fight alone (if necessary) and grind Israel into capitulating. Israel discovers that “plans don’t survive first contact with the enemy.” Netanyahu dials 1-800-USA HELP
Short War
“Plans don’t survive first contact with the enemy” is a military adage. This holds true for Israel, which assumed decapitation strikes and bombings will bring the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) to its knees, and instigate a popular uprising. This worked out splendidly. The country rallied around the government; and Artesh (Army) and IRGC started pounding Israel into the desert. The devastation in Tel Aviv and Haifa is self-evident, this despite censorship efforts that include threats of incarceration of any Israeli or (Israeli) Arab uploading videos to social media. Strikes on military installations have been censored. Israel is reeling from Iran’s demonstration of “shock and awe.”
Enter Trump and the air strike on Fordow, which “bomb damage assessment” (BDA) specialists have concluded (1) was not hit by GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs, but by air-launched standoff weapons; and (2) sustained minor damage. It was theater to give Trump a “win” and an “off-ramp” for Netanyahu, where Netanyahu can declare victory and end the war. “Not so fast,” said Tehran. “I see where you’re going with this. Shall we play a different game?”
Long War
IRI learned bitter lessons in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), one of which is that the Rules Based Order® (RBO®) will support IRI’s enemies even if that enemy is the aggressor (true today, too); and global supply lines can be severed through sanctions and blockades. Iran has abundant natural resources, agriculture, industry, intellectual capital, and labor. Everything is produced in Iran—from food to pharmaceuticals to automobiles, electronics, heavy equipment, missiles, and other weapons systems. Israel, however, is dependent on outside assistance for energy, ordnance, and defense. For example, to reduce 365 sq. km. Gaza to rubble, Israel needed c. 90,000 tons of U.S. ordnance, which necessitated c. 600 USAF and IDF airlifts over 18 months. This does not include military aid from Israel’s genocide-enthusiasts in UK/EU.
Air defense is the primary service provided to Israel by the U.S., NATO allies, and the “Arab Dome” (viz., Jordan and Saudi Arabia). An explanation of the multiple defensive rings through which Iranian missiles pass is given below.
Every Iranian missile that reaches Israel not only pierces the Iron Dome/Arrow systems. It cuts through CENTCOM, NATO, and the entire Western defense stack like a blade.
Thomas Keith
First layer: American destroyers in the Persian Gulf.
Second: Patriot and THAAD batteries shielding U.S. garrisons in Iraq.
Third: Jordanian airspace, guarded by U.S. F-35s and joint radar links.
Fourth: AEGIS-equipped warships in the Red Sea.
Fifth: RAF and U.S. air bases watching the eastern Mediterranean.
Sixth: Israel’s own multi-tier net, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, and their U.S.-backed command linkages.
6 layered defense rings. 100s of billions in procurement. 10s of thousands of flight-hours in ISR prep. Dozens of U.S. and allied platforms working in relay.
Still Haifa and Tel Aviv burn. Sirens echo through the night.
The West can’t admit it, but everyone else sees it: If this is what total coverage looks like, imagine what gets through when it’s not.
Last Word
Interceptors for air defense systems are limited. Once stocks are further depleted, Iranian Aerospace Forces can send in drones with ease, while reserving missiles for select targets. In time, Iran can reduce national infrastructure, economic, military, and scientific centers to dust and ash. Then Israel will be ready to talk peace.
Perspectives 
You must be logged in to post a comment.