Iran-Israel War | Winners & Losers

Iran won. Trump’s confidant, Steve Bannon, explains on video. My amplifications in essay.

[The] ceasefire was as much to save Israel; that’s the hidden story here. They bit off way more than they could chew…yesterday [23 June] was a brutal day for the citizens of Israel. They took horrible incomings [Iranian missiles]…they needed this [ceasefire] because they’re running out of defensive ammunition [i.e., interceptors for air defense systems]…

—Steve Bannon—

Preamble

Iranians united. Israel killed 865 Iranians and wounded 4,870; majority of the dead (627), are non-combatants. Images of murdered men, women, and children; strikes by Israel on civilian structures—playgrounds, universities, dormitories, hospitals, Red Crescent, IRIB TV station, etc.—spread through Iranian media and social media. Public anger boiled, solidifying public support for Iran’s political and military leaderships. Iranians demanded unrelenting war against the aggressor.

Tel Aviv, however, started begging publicly for a ceasefire on 22 June. On 23 June, it sent a message to Tehran seeking cessation of hostilities. Tehran rejected the request. Trump intervened 23 June (Qatar mediated). Iran is keeping its powder dry and waiting on the Trump Administration. Are diplomatic talks underway? Will Trump offer a deal to Tehran to make its brief pause a permanent peace? Or did both sides agree to the ceasefire to allow for re-grouping?

Iran Won

1. Nuclear Program: It is intact: Fordow was built below a mountain to withstand nuclear strikes—as China did with “Project 816.” All nuclear sites picked for reasons of geology and geography. 408 kg HEU is in Iranian hands (60% HEU = 20 nuclear warheads without enrichment to 90% HEU). Iran’s Majlis voted 25 June to expel IAEA and to discontinue cooperation with IAEA. A thoroughly-inspected and open nuclear program until 13 June has gone underground (literally and metaphorically). Apart from Fordow, which will re-open, work continues at undisclosed nuclear sites.

2. Survival: Iran survived “regime change,” assassinations, sabotage, and air strikes. It retaliated with 547 ballistic missile strikes over 12 days, plus countless drones (Update 29 June: ca. 1,050 drones were launched). U.S. and Israel launched from 1,000 to 1,200 interceptors—an unsustainable rate of 83 to 100 interceptors per day (Update 29 June: U.S. burned through 15-20% of its THAAD stocks). This does not include interceptors launched by Allies. Iran brought Israel to its knees. In striking al-Udayd Airbase, Iran demonstrated that it is unafraid of U.S., and has the ability to defeat U.S. air defenses. Meanwhile, Iraqi allies were striking U.S. bases with drones to remind the U.S. of its vulnerability.

3. Iranian Supremacy over Persian Gulf States: Arabs now recognize Iran’s military supremacy over them. Saudi Arabia expended billions on defense (including air defense systems), but is aware that it cannot repel Iranian strikes. Israel received a level of Allied assistance that KSA cannot expect in a war with Iran. If Iran batters KSA, Yemeni troops will surge into KSA and capture Jeddah, Mecca, and Medina. Even without pivoting east to Riyadh, Iran and Yemen can topple the Kingdom. Tiny Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain stand zero chance against Iranian missiles. Respect for, or fear of, Iran.

4. Persian Gulf States and Turkey: They viewed Israel as the bulwark against the “Iranian menace,” but as the Gaza Genocide progressed, became alarmed by Israel’s unbridled power, vileness, and “Greater Israel” territorial ambitions. The Daily Tripe’s pro-Israeli propagandist, Adrian Blomfield, (accidentally?) got this right: “[Israel’s] Unchecked, uncontrollable power is no longer an asset for us [Gulf Arab States]. It is a problem. . . That Israel now risks replacing Iran as the chief source of instability is an irony”; [Update 26 June: see M.H. Sweidan, “For Arab states, an enduring Iran is far better than a victorious Israel”; Update 28 June: WashPost: “U.S. sees a new Middle East. Gulf allies fret about an unrestrained Israel”].

Persian Gulf states need Iran as a strong bulwark against Israel. Gulf Arabs pay the U.S. “protection money”—U.S. military bases in the Gulf—due to the “Iranian menace,” but what now? Since Israel is the source of instability, the U.S. is not going to intervene if any of the Persian Gulf Arabs states is attacked by America’s psychotic baby. Why continue to host U.S. bases in the Gulf?

5. Iran’s Global Standing has Skyrocketed (related to 3 & 4): Nobody likes Israel. Israel proved that IDF is skilled at butchering women and children, with a murder record surpassed only by Einsatzgruppen. Gulf Arabs, North African Arabs, and Turks twiddled thumbs or aided-and-abetted Israel’s genocidal machine. Iran, however, challenged Israel and the United States. Since 7 October 2023, Arab and Turk stocks fell to junk status; whereas Iran, languishing for decades as pennystock, rapidly shot to blue-chip status. Ayatollah Khamenei, once viewed an “oddity” in global politics, has acquired “rock star” status among Muslims. Iran is earning global respect. It has gone from “zero to hero.”

6. Stronger Iran-China Alliance: Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh arrived in Beijing (25 June), presumably with a long shopping list. Two Chinese Type 815A ELINT ships (hull numbers 855 & 815A) parked in the Persian Gulf, aided Iran and sucked up intelligence on U.S. technology and operations. Iran switched to Chinese GNSS (BeiDou; alternative to U.S.-run GPS), and linked to Chinese satellites for precision targeting and pre-strike and post-strike imagery (of targets and bomb damage analysis). Meanwhile, industrial-grade chemicals, circuit boards, propellants, and drone engines flow into Iran. The Iran-China railroad opened ca. 1 June 2025, allowing for secretive transfers that Israel and U.S. cannot monitor, sabotage, or interdict.

China does not have a “Jewish problem”: Russian and American foreign policies are shaped by their Jewish populations (including oligarchs in both countries), and émigrés to Israel; hence Russia’s balancing act with Iran. An astute analyst, Thomas Keith, noted, “Israel proved Iran doesn’t have a glass jaw; China now supplies the brass knuckles.”

Israel Lost

1. Israel Got Beaten Like a Drum: Western media sanitized its coverage to protect Israel, but the world witnessed Iran’s thrashing of Israel (analyses here, here, here, here). Israel’s military outlays run to many billions; and $1.5 bil. in damage to civilian properties, generating ca. 38,700 insurance claims. Investment capital is in flight—as are tens of thousands of Israelis. A settler colony dies without settlers.

2. Glass Jaw: Israel’s aura of invincibility has been shattered. It retains a strong air force and nuclear weapons, but Iran showed that it can pulverize Israel. Another week of bombings and Israel would have been reduced to dust and ash; hence Netanyahu’s panic, and involvement of the U.S. In round two, Iran will come back stronger and harder—probably with a nuclear deterrent.

3: Frontier Outpost: Israel needs steady supplies from Allies. Since the ceasefire, ca. 147 aircraft have delivered supplies. Iran did not attempt to sever this supply line (by destroying every landing field and port). Israel is like a frontier post in the Wild West; if the “Injuns” cut the post’s supply lines, the post will die. U.S. Cavalry will hurry to the rescue, but what if the cavalry cannot land in an airfield or port? Or is ambushed en route? On long war, which favors Iran, see my essay, “War of Attrition.”

The Rules Based Order® Lost

The United States claims the mantle of “defender” of democracy; and is a senior member of the Rules Based Order® (RBO®) that it helped found after 1945. By conducting duplicitous negotiations with Iran, while working with Israel to attack Iran; and by not condemning the violation of the UN Charter; and instead, endorsing Israel’s actions and participating, the U.S. has lost what little credibility it had on 12 June. Russia and China have taken note. The NPT has been shredded by, inter alia, politicization of the IAEA and evisceration of NPT principles.

UK, EU, and NATO discredited themselves by not condemning Israel’s blatant violations of the UN Charter. Reichsführer Metz said that Israel was doing the “dirty work” (Drecksarbeit) for the Rules Based Order®, while Starmer, et al. supported Israel. Only Macron said the attack was “illegal,” but added it was appropriate because Israel’s actions benefited the objectives of the Rules Based Order®. NATO Sec.-Gen. Rutte endorsed Israel’s actions. A wag on Twitter said, “I just graduated university with the most useless degree: international law.” Indeed.