“The Iranian missile cities the US could not destroy” by the Financial Times caused a stir among the unwashed, but (real) scholars of Iran knew that all underground bases were selected on geography and geology. They are impregnable. To adapt Bill Clinton’s famous slogan, “It’s the geology, stupid”
FT Article
“The Iranian missile cities the US could not destroy” (FT, 12 June 2026) is paywalled. The article focuses on an underground missile base in Yazd. No need to buy it: it is of little value, just generalities or facts that were known to those of us who followed the Ramazan War on Telegram and X/Twitter. For example, how bases were bombed but operational shortly thereafter. It is revealing, however, of how ignorant DOD and its coterie of “Iran experts” are of Iranian history, geography, geology, and strategy.
In sum, USAF, despite dropping thousands of tons of high-explosives, including 2,300kg “bunker buster” bombs, barely scratched the bases. Tunnel entrances were quickly cleared and “boom! boom!” continued. Israel and US bases in the Persian Gulf and Jordan were battered every day.
Missile Cities
Geology
“It’s the geology, stupid.”
The geology of the Iranian Plateau is formidable. Not being a geologist, all I can say—with help from my Uncle Claude—is that rock formations like limestone and dolomite absorb and scatter blast energy. The Iranian Plateau is “honeycombed with natural caves and cavities, layered with fractures, which breaks up and swallows shockwaves before they travel far.” Ruggedness, cracks, fissures, and fractures are evident from topographical imagery on Google Earth. Walking through the deserts, hills, mountains, and the rims of the Alborz and Zagros ranges is informative: one gets a sense of the severity of the land.
Geologists, engineers, and generals picked the sites. Construction expanded after Bush’s “Axis of Evil” speech (29/01/2002). Iranians studied the “American way of war” and knew the US military is a “one-trick pony”: air campaigns (e.g., Serbia, Iraq, Libya, and Syria). Aerial bombardment is the sum of US “strategy.” Iran negated US air power by developing impenetrable subterranean cities. Checkmate.
Satellite Images of Bombed Bases
Shiraz Base
“Shiraz-South” is one of Iran’s biggest missile cities and one of its most exposed. Despite bombings over forty-days, including with 2,300kg GBU-72 “bunker busters,” independent “Bomb Damage Assessment” (BDA) by @MT_Anderson (Twitter/X), shows that the damage is minimal; principally to entrances that get blocked with debris. However, blocked entrances are swiftly cleared with earth excavators.
Tabriz Base
Karaj Base (west of Tehran)
Sajid missile base is beside Amir al-Mumineen garrison and logistical support base at Karaj (geo: 35.6244, 50.9059), west of Tehran. Surface structures were destroyed, but the underground base is untouched (just the collapse of two entrances that were subsequently cleared).
Conclusion
Iran has demonstrated that its missile bases can keep operating despite USAF firepower. However, USAF firepower is waning: munitions stockpiles, viz., the standoff weapons that USAF needs to avoid flying too close to Iran, are dwindling (Uncle Sam blew his load!). Moreover, Iran reduced sortie rates by destroying or rendering inoperable US bases in the Middle East, thereby forcing the US to fly long-distance bombing runs from CONUS and RAF Fairford. Lastly, Iranian air defenses held up better than expected, bagging USAF jets and drones, including “stealth” aircraft. Iran is the first country to claim a F-35 kill.
Trump was assuredly advised that the war is lost, but is rejecting acceptance. I cannot say if the proposed “Memorandum of Understanding” to be signed on 19 June 2026 will lead to a peace agreement. What can be said is that if there is more fighting, the US’s defeat will transform from bad to catastrophic. Iran has proven that it cannot be bombed into submission.
Trump will have to submit to Iran. Perhaps Tehran will insist that Trump and his idiot compadres pray at the Grand Mosque? “Praise be to Allah” if that happens (Trump tweeted “Praise be to Allah” 🤷♂️ ).
