When David Petraeus was asked by a journalist at the onset of the Iraq War on the outcome, he replied “Tell Me How This Ends.” A bold but reasonable prediction by me on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War: it will not end through any settlement proposed by Trump. It will end with an unambiguous Russian military victory over Ukraine—NATO’s “battering ram” against Russia.
How It Began
Only a political naïf believes the 24 Feb 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was “unprovoked.” If you think Russia is the aggressor, not the victim of US/UK/EU/NATO machinations, go back to reading fairy tales.
I shall not dwell on how NATO/US/UK/EU staged the Maidan Coup, violated Minsk I and Minsk II, transformed Ukraine into one of the strongest militaries in continental Europe, and pointed NATO’s “battering ram” at Russia. But see the talks by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs (from my alma mater, Columbia University) and Prof. John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago.)
How It Will Not End
It will not end with Trump’s peace plan—whatever it is. Concepts have been floated; Zelensky claims to be open to a “diplomatic solutions.” Of course he is: Trump’s proposals (as floated) allow Ukraine to claim victory, and possibly become a NATO member.
Trump’s “plan” assumes that the U.S. has the leverage—economic, military, diplomatic—to impose terms on Russia. This is laughable. “Maximum pressure” sanctions have been imposed on Russia; NATO members have emptied their arsenals to supply Ukraine with weapons; supplied Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance aircraft; and supplied intelligence, technicians, and “mercenaries” to Ukraine. Russia is advancing; Russia is winning, meaning, Ukraine is retreating; Ukraine is losing. Russia will not cease its SMO until the Kremlin’s military-political objectives are met in toto.
How It Will End
It will end with Russia landlocking Ukraine and seizing mineral- and agricultural rich lands. Ukraine will be de-militarized (“de-Nazification” in Russian terms). Ukraine will be neutral and will never join NATO. The current anti-Russian regime in Kiev will disappear. A pliant regime will be installed.
This will come through an unambiguous Russian victory. This Russian victory will not resemble the decisive Soviet victory over the Third Reich—as depicted in the photograph of a soldier raising the Soviet flag over the Reichstag, but Russia’s victory will be unequivocal. Russia will strive to ensure that NATO/US/UK/EU politicians and militaries; and anti-Russia journalists and historians, will not be able to argue reasonably that “Russia was defeated…,” or “Ukraine won,” or “Russia was forced to…” However, the world will know that Russia won. The Kremlin must show that Russia defeated the economic and military might pitted against the country and its peoples.
Russia’s Global Audience
“Sticking it” to the West (NATO/US/UK/EU) is one critical aspect of Russia’s strategic ambitions, but proving to the Global South that Russia is militarily powerful, and therefore a putative leader of this rising socio-economic and political bloc, is another critical aspect. This objective can be achieved if the Global South accepts that Russia has indeed “stuck it” to the United States.
Consequent to the West’s military support for Ukraine and imposition of sanctions against the Russian people, the Kremlin is barely interested in the views of the governments and peoples of the “Golden Billion.”[1] Russia has turned to the Global South, and organizations like BRICS, to construct a multipolar alternative to the unipolar order that emerged in 1991 following the demise of the USSR. Unipolarity is waning; multipolarity is waxing. Putin’s audience is the Global South and its subset, BRICS: ca. 88% of global population (ca. 7 billion) is in the Global South. “In 2024, BRICS countries hold 35 percent of the world’s GDP compared to 30 percent held by G7 countries.”
The future belongs to the Global South: “Why is the Global South optimistic? Take the 3.5 billion population of China, India, and the ASEAN countries, for example. In 2000, only 150 million of these people enjoyed middle-class living standards. Today, the number has exploded to around 1.5 billion, double the total population of western countries. And it is predicted to grow to 3 billion by 2030.”
[1] On Golden Billion: “an allegory intended to designate the most wealthy part humans living predominantly in the most developed countries and having all that is needed for a secure and comfortable life. . . in 2000 one sixth of the planetary population (mostly inhabitants of North America, Europe and Japan) were receiving nearly 80% of world income […], 57% of world population from the poorest countries had only 6% of world income […]. At the same time, 1.2 billion people having less than 1 dollar a day were even in a worse situation.”
Perspectives 
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