History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
The bombing of the Rafiei-Nia Synagogue in Tehran prompted this brief note, which includes a link to an excellent documentary about Iranian Jews. I will write later about the pending settlement of the Iran War. I will only say that it’s a clear strategic victory for Iran—and resounding defeat for Iran haters!
Trump and Hegseth threatened to send Iran back to the “Stone Age.” However, in the Stone Age (to 4,500 BC), Iranians had thriving civilization; and by the Bronze Age (3,300—1,200 BC), had empires that predated Ancient Greece by 2,000 years and Rome by 2,500 years. The the world has discovered that the Iranians are civilized while savages run the United States.
Is Iran pursuing a “madman strategy”? Or do the generals have a coherent strategy that they relentlessly pursue, while pivoting and/or climbing up the escalatory ladder as circumstances warrant? For, e.g., after the South Pars gas field was bombed by US-Israel?
Nawruz greetings to the ancient Iranian nation being unjustly attacked by barbarians
Iran is beating US like a drum and advancing its strategy, but Washington’s control of the media narrative is thwarting realization of Iran’s goals. Pre-war, Tehran set five objectives to force concessions from the Trump Regime. None have been met as yet because DC is shaping the narrative. Once the media dam breaks, Iran’s goals will be realized.
A hasty roundup for those not following the right Twitter/X and Telegram channels. The war is going swimmingly for US and Israel. Iranian civilians and infrastructure are being targeted by the frustrated enemy, but (1) US bases in Persian Gulf, Jordan, and Iraq are disappearing; (2) all US (THAAD & non-THAAD) radars are gone (= US & Israel are blind); (3) interceptor stocks are dwindling: “Israel’s skies are our highway” (= Iranian missiles and drones freely passing). Israel has imposed strict censorship; and satellite companies like Planet Labs have embargoed release of images for two weeks. But China is releasing images.
Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.
Elon Musk’s shutdown of Starlink prompted me to as ask, “why are Russian soldiers using Starlink? Don’t they have satellite-based comms?” Yes and no. Russia has systems for “Command, Control, and Communications (C3), but no satellite-based network comparable to USA’s and China’s prolific and multifaceted networks used for C3 and ISR.
Iran now treats hostile rhetoric as casus belli—preemption is on the table. As nuclear and missile programs recover, could Tehran launch blitz to shatter Israel’s OODA loop and paralyze its inner rings before Tel Aviv can move? First mover seizes initiative…
The “collective west” pontificates about democracy, freedom, civil rights, and civil liberties in Iran, but Iran’s experiences (ca. 1860s to 1979) with foreign powers are of political domination and resource extraction. Organic democratic reforms in Iran were quashed by the west.
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