Popular analyses claim Iran is “weaker than it has even been since the Islamic Revolution” and the “fabled” Axis of Resistance has been badly damaged. Time is ripe for U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Others, building on these pedestrian analyses, claim Iran is desperate for a nuclear deal and sanctions relief. But while Iran does need relief, Israel and U.S. need an accommodation with Iran because they cannot defeat Iran militarily. E3 must be excluded from negotiations with Iran because it will derail talks. U.S. and Iran must talk directly.
Pedestrian Analyses
“Iran is weak,” “Hizballah has been defeated,” “Hamas has been defeated,” “Axis of Resistance has been defeated,” “fall of Assad is major blow to Iran,” “Iranian air defenses were destroyed by Israel,” and so on.
These essays are all over the internet. They are propaganda to advance the “Israel is winning” narrative. A former U.S. intelligence analyst classifies this material, along with the “Ukraine is winning” tales, as “empire propaganda,” i.e., narratives advanced to “prove” that the collective west (U.S., UK, EU, NATO) are “winning” against those dastardly Russians and Iranians.
The actual state of play is more complex. I have shown that while Assad’s fall is not ideal for Iran, it not unwelcome in Tehran. If Iranian AD was indeed destroyed on 26 October 2024, why are U.S. and Israel not conducting 24/7 bombing runs over Iran. Why would Trump bother to open the door to talks with Iran when he could bomb it into the Stone Age?
If decapitation strikes, such as those executed by Israel against Hizballah’s leadership, are winning military tactics, why are the Taliban ruling Afghanistan? Obama launched 563 drone strikes in eight years (George W. Bush ordered just 57 strikes in nearly eight years). Hundreds of Iraqi and Afghan insurgent leaders, along with thousands of others, were killed. But U.S. lost Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel’s strikes against Hizballah solved nothing. Hundreds of thousands of settlers are unable to return to their homes in northern Israel. Hizballah retains its arsenal. Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire because IDF lost. If it had been winning, IDF would be in Beirut today (as it was in 1982).
Ansarallah (“Houthis,” in the terminology of empire propagandists), rule the Arabian Sea and Red Sea. They destroyed “Op Prosperity Guardian” and chased away every CSG sent to the region. The Red Sea is again open to Anglo-American sea traffic, but only because Ansarallah gave them permission! Lastly, Hamas is stronger than before 7 October 2023 and celebrating openly in Gaza.
Remind me, please, who exactly, is winning?
Two Critical Facts That Cannot be Discounted
One, Iran proved with Operation True Promise I (April) and TPII (August) that it can defeat Israel’s vaunted air defenses and THAAD systems. IRGC/Aerospace ran roughshod over Israel.
Two, Iran has proved that it can defeat stealth technology (F35 aircraft) through superior AD. The Israeli attack of 26 October was discombobulated. A few stealth cruise missiles penetrated Iranian airspace and struck four lightly-defended and strategically meaningless targets.
One plus two equals: Iran can vaporize Israel at will, but Israel cannot strike Iran. Keep in mind that Israel is a measly 21,671 km2; Iran, 1,648,195 km2. Iran’s most important military and nuclear sites are dispersed, often underground, and heavily-defended. While a few missiles will get through, Iran will have the time and ability to destroy Israel. Add contributions by Hizballah and Ansarallah, and Israel is on the brink of extinction. Russia proved with its “Oreshnik” missile that one does not need nuclear weapons to deliver nuclear-level destructive power. Thus so Iran.
Monroe Doctrine Redux
Trump appears to be following the course that nationalistic American conservatives (like myself) have advocated for years. Address security in our backyard (Monroe Doctrine), exit NATO, eschew foreign wars (Middle East and Ukraine), pull up the drawbridge to “Fortress America,” and focus on economic and infrastructure development at home. Too early to say for certain, but his focus on the Panama Canal is pure Monroe Doctrine.
Trump wants out of wars the U.S. cannot win. Ukraine and Iran are unwinnable wars. Convincing Netanyahu at their meeting today, 4 Feb 2025, will be one of Trump’s difficult tasks. But Trump has proven that he can browbeat the arrogant and contumacious war criminal. He forced him to accept the Hamas ceasefire. Trump must do the same to forge an U.S.-Iran agreement.
E3: UK, FR, DE
The snake in the woodpile is the E3. In ongoing E3-Iran talks, E3 have made unreasonable demands of Iran, to wit, that Iran’s ballistic missile program be included in nuclear talks. This was met with a firm “no.” E3’s demand reflects the stupidity of the bloc’s political leaders (Starmer, Scholz, Macron) and their foreign ministers (Lammy, Baerbock, Barrot). E3’s demand is unilateral disarmament by Iran: no nuclear AND no conventional weapons. Gee, kids, why not ask Tehran to surrender to the British Army?
The Fifth Republic is teetering; Das Reich goes to the polls 23 Feb; and Starmer has redefined the meaning of incompetent. The only strong—and the only important—government, is the one run by Donald Trump. Why invite three nincompoops to the party? As vassal states, E3 will obey our orders, but we should not be subject to their machinations.
Lastly—and the issue that spurred me to write this essay—is that Vice President J.D. Vance, who opposes foreign wars, has stated that Britain, reduced to a piddling economic and military power, seeks to use the USA to advance empire projects that it cannot continue alone, e.g., conflicts with Russia and Iran. Anglo-American tensions exploded to the surface in a public spat between Vance and Rory Stewart, a former MP, who teaches “strategy” at Yale. Yale is packed with empire propagandists like (failed) Gen. Stanley McCrystal and Prof. Timothy D. Snyder.
I agree with Vance that UK will try to snare Washington into continuing Britain’s imperialist wars against Russia and Iran. This is a threat to U.S. National Security. Dump E3. Only U.S. and Iran should talk.
Perspectives 
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