Trump’s “minerals deal” is a “nothingburger.” The bulk of Ukraine’s natural resources (oil, gas, diverse metals, etc.) are, or will be, under Russian control. There is nothing the USA, UK, and EU can do to change reality on the battlefield. The minerals in “rump Ukraine” can be exploited after the war, but the deposits are assuredly less valuable than the natural resources of “former Ukraine” that Russia will acquire.
Trump’s Minerals Deal
On 30 April 2025, U.S. Treasury issued a press release on the signing of an agreement, but has yet to publish the agreement. Media have contributed their views, most of which fall under the category of wishful thinking: “Ukraine has prised Trump away from the Kremlin with minerals deal in triumph of diplomacy”; “Trump administration signs minerals deal with Ukraine in key move for Russian peace”; “US and Ukraine sign minerals deal that solidifies investment in Kyiv’s defense against Russia.” The agreement will not help end the war: Russia will capture, or receive through negotiations, the oblasts to the east of the Dnieper, down to Odessa. Ukraine will be landlocked.
Hydrocarbons and Minerals
Russia acquires Ukraine’s hydrocarbon reserves in the south, north/northeast, and east. The Dnieper-Donetsk region has ca. 80% of Ukraine’s proven reserves; ca. 6% of proven reserves are in the south: Azov Sea, Black Sea, and Crimea. About 86% of proven reserves will go to Russia.
Lands west of the Dnieper hold minerals such as lithium, titanium, graphite, manganese, uranium, beryllium, iron ore, and rare earth elements (REEs; 17 elements used for manufacturing processes); however, their economic values are undetermined. A report by BBC (1 May 2025) shows that the most valuable deposits lie east of the Dnieper (see Map 3 & Map 4). Titanium, zirconium, graphite, lithium, and REEs are in multiple locations west of the Dnieper.
The six graphics below are for illustrative purposes only.
Maps of Oil & Gas Reserves
Maps of Mineral Deposits
Conclusions
The agreement allows Trump to tell his MAGA followers that he recouped monies expended by Biden. His MAGA devotees will crow on TikTok, IG, Twitter, etc. that “Trump is playing 5D chess while Putin is playing checkers.”
Perspectives 
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