Here we go again! Israel’s Channel 12 dropped their 15-point proposal just in time to move markets. Western outlets copied-and-pasted the article without questioning provenance or motive. Tehran said “US negotiating with itself.” Iran’s strategy of pushing the US out of the Mideast is advancing.
No Ceasefire
I will not waste time parsing the US-Israeli proposal. Iran has explained its framework for a settlement. See “Iran War Assessment: No Negotiations.” They will not budge: firstly, they are on path the strategic victory; secondly, Iran needs a protracted war that enervates the United States and forces an exhausted Washington to capitulate to Iran’s demands; and Iran’s biggest backer, China, wants a protracted war (see below).
Trump’s biggest fear—and Iran’s objective—is skyrocketing energy markets and crashing equity markets. So, far, Trump has minimized the damage; but the dam will burst, probably when Ansarallah (“Houthis”) join by blocking Red Sea traffic through the Bab al-Mandab (“Gate of Tears”).
The War Goes On
Media touted a five-day pause based on statements by Trump. This had geopolitical analysts wondering (and chuckling) if journalists live in an alternate universe. There is no pause. Not even for one hour.
Iran continues its attacks on US military, diplomatic, economic, and espionage facilities in Iraq, Jordan, and GCC states (except Oman). Iran is nearing its objective of denuding the Middle East of US military and political influence. The last US redoubt in Iraq is in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan). US bases were under heavy attack last night, along with their Kurdish proxies. The US base at Harir (Kurdistan) is gone: it was too close to the Iranian border and housed US Special Forces. It got hammered from the start. US & NATO contingents have fled Victory Base (Baghdad).
The US Navy 5th Fleet decamped its wrecked HQ at Manama (Bahrain) for Souda Bay (Crete). HQ for US operations against Iran has shifted to Ramstein (DE). US is conducting long-range air operations from continental US (CONUS) and UK/Europe because its regional bases are inoperable or nearly inoperable. Iran is succeeding by forcing the US to operate from CONUS and Europe, which is unsustainable due to airframe wear. Daily sorties against Iran have dropped due to the distances.
Iran’s air defenses are holding: the US is still drawing down on its dwindling supply of standoff munitions to attack Iran from KSA, Kuwait, Iraqi, and Syrian air space. No penetration of Iranian air space except at its western and southern peripheries. This is critical because US has abundant supplies of “smart bombs” and “dumb bombs” that can be dropped on Iran, but in order to do this, IDF and USAF must be able to penetrate Iranian air space.
Iran has launched over eighty waves of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. Claims that Iranian offensive power has been degraded are false. Iran is launching fewer projectiles per day, but this is because Israeli and US air defenses are degraded and Iran no longer has to overwhelm air defenses with heavy barrages. Iran just targets what they please with impunity; for example, two missiles at Arad and Dimona that led to what the Israeli PM called “the worst day of the war.” Israeli analyst, Alon Mizrahi, summarizes conditions in Israel.
Iran and China
China has much to lose if Iran is defeated. See “US-Iran Showdown: The Stakes for Iran, Russia, and China.” China has a great deal to gain once Iran defeats the US. An interesting document came into my hands last night. It’s a paper from a Chinese think-tank. The five points, in brief (fuller analysis is limited to private clients): (1) protracted war is “strategic opportunity” for China; (2) disruptions to seaborne shipping shift dependency to China’s rail routes; (3) capital flight (dollar to yuan; US/EU to Asia); (4) industrial chain demand shift from US to China that gives Beijing price-setting and rule-making power; (5) war is “stress test” for the petrodollar.
On #5, Iran is pricing oil in yuan. If other O&G producers follow…
Perspectives 