History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
U.S.-Iran talks in Muscat and Rome have faltered due to shifting American demands, and Israeli machinations to derail an agreement. What are Iran’s choices? A decisive Iranian victory in a war with U.S. and Israel may be Tehran’s only path to permanent peace.
Trump’s “minerals deal” is a “nothingburger.” The bulk of Ukraine’s natural resources (oil, gas, diverse metals, etc.) are, or will be, under Russian control. There is nothing the USA, UK, and EU can do to change reality on the battlefield. The minerals in “rump Ukraine” can be exploited after the war, but the deposits are assuredly less valuable than the natural resources of “former Ukraine” that Russia will acquire.
The death on 4 March 2025 of Oleg Gordievsky, British intelligence’s mole in the KGB, prompts me to write about his escape from the Soviet Union in July 1985, which had the hallmarks of a Hollywood thriller.
Happy New Year (نوروز پیروز)
Vladimir Kryuchkov (1924–2007) is best known for the failed August 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev. He oversaw two of America’s worst Cold War intelligence breaches, Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen. Kryuchkov took measures to deflect attention from both double-agents during CIA/FBI mole hunts. His success at deceiving CIA allowed both moles to operate for longer than they probably should have.
Trump has re-imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei closed the JCPOA file. Where does Iran go from here? The U.S. oil embargo on Japan and Pearl Harbor suggest military scenarios.
Oh, goody. Finally, a war that I can fully support! Brief comments on The Washington Post “leak” is below.
Yalta Conference (Crimea), 8–11 February 1945, was handily won by Stalin due to superior intelligence provided by NKGB on British and American thinking.
In a speech to the military, Ayatollah Khamenei took a firm stance against new negotiations with the U.S. Subtitled video at link, with my comments.
Popular analyses claim Iran is “weaker than it has even been since the Islamic Revolution” and the “fabled” Axis of Resistance has been badly damaged. Time is ripe for U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Others, building on these pedestrian analyses, claim Iran is desperate for a nuclear deal and sanctions relief. But while Iran does need relief, Israel and U.S. need an accommodation with Iran because they cannot defeat Iran militarily. E3 must be excluded from negotiations with Iran because it will derail talks. U.S. and Iran must talk directly.
Perspectives 
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