History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Russia’s non-delivery to Iran of twenty-five Su–35 multirole fighters may be indicative of Russia’s reluctance to overtly arm Iran at a moment when Iran is threatened by Israel and U.S., thereby antagonizing Israel’s primary protector just when U.S.-Russia negotiations could yield diplomatic and economic benefits to Russia.
A primer on why Iran insisted on Oman as venue for talks. U.S. sought UAE—its vassal state—as venue for the Araghchi-Witkoff indirect meetings, but Iran held firm.
Happy New Year (نوروز پیروز)
Trump has re-imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei closed the JCPOA file. Where does Iran go from here? The U.S. oil embargo on Japan and Pearl Harbor suggest military scenarios.
Oh, goody. Finally, a war that I can fully support! Brief comments on The Washington Post “leak” is below.
Israel’s real gripe is that Iran is a nationalist, non-vassal state with 90 million literate and educated people. If Iran is allowed to freely develop, it will become an economic and military superpower. Hence, permanent sanctions to hobble Iran. In the absence of diplomacy, Tehran has only one path left: war with Israel and U.S.
In a speech to the military, Ayatollah Khamenei took a firm stance against new negotiations with the U.S. Subtitled video at link, with my comments.
Popular analyses claim Iran is “weaker than it has even been since the Islamic Revolution” and the “fabled” Axis of Resistance has been badly damaged. Time is ripe for U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Others, building on these pedestrian analyses, claim Iran is desperate for a nuclear deal and sanctions relief. But while Iran does need relief, Israel and U.S. need an accommodation with Iran because they cannot defeat Iran militarily. E3 must be excluded from negotiations with Iran because it will derail talks. U.S. and Iran must talk directly.
“Trump’s exploratory outreach to Iran, presented as a clean slate, stands in stark contrast to the turbulence of his hawkish first term. Is this a sincere effort at diplomacy or a calculated salvo to throw his opponents off guard?” My essay, published by Cradle Media, can be accessed at the link published on my site. For copyright reasons, I cannot post the full text. Thanks.
Installation of a new administration should be occasion for evaluation of foreign policy and for adjustments, but Marco Rubio’s statements about the Taliban portend enhanced misery for 42 million Afghans suffering under the Islamic Emirate. Influence of Afghan émigré groups, viz., “National Resistance Front,” will prevent the Trump Administration from forging a diplomatic path to Kabul that enhances U.S. National Security.
Perspectives 
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