The FBI is scubbing its “Most Wanted” list of references to Muhammad al-Jawlani, the leader of Hayʾat a Tahir al-Shams (HTS)—the principal power in post-Assad Syria. He was the emir of Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaida affiliate in Syria. An image of his “Most Wanted” poster has been preserved, along with a link not yet deleted by the FBI. al-Jawlani is being presented to the public as “rebel,” and according to an interview he recently did with CNN, “a kinder, gentler, and woker” Islamist! Ya Allah!
Category: Middle East Politics
E3 anti-Iran resolution will fuel Iran’s nuclear resolve
“With Israel pushing the US toward a new war against Iran, the IAEA's anti-Iran resolution has already backfired, undermining Tehran's new negotiations-friendly administration, and handing a proverbial gift to the nation's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” My essay. Link to article is at my website.
The HTS Offensive and Memories of Aleppo, Syria
Turkish-, American-, and Israeli-backed HTS terrorists (“rebels” in the parlance of the west) have besieged Aleppo in northern Syria, prompting this photo blog. Background note on HTS, which is derived from al-Qaiʾda, along with an observation on who benefits (cui bono?) from this offensive, are included.
IAEA’s Gift to IRGC
UK, France, and Germany, instigated by US and Israel, promoted an anti-Iran resolution before the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Commission. It passed. This was a gift to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Another “L” (loss) and “own goal” by the Anglo-American foreign policy establishment.
Change in Iran’s Public Posture on ICBMs and Nuclear Weapons
Updated 17 Nov 2024 with two new video links and commentary: Former Iran FM Kamal Kharrazi stated that Tehran reserves right to revise its nuclear doctrine if the country faces an “existential threat;” and that Iran has voluntarily restricted the range of its ballistic missiles out of respect for “European concerns”; however, since Europe does not respect Iran’s security concerns, Tehran need not “be bound by their sensitivities.” Ayatollah Khamenei sent an enigmatic tweet: “We will definitely do everything necessary to prepare the Iranian nation for confronting the Arrogant Powers [plural].”
Trump II and the Iran-Russia-China Alliance
Trump’s nominations are MIGA (“Make Israel Great Again”) zealots who harbor hawkish anti-Iran, anti-Russia and anti-China sentiments. Trump Administration II will fortify the Iran-Russia-China “Tripartite Alliance.” Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran realize that “we must all hang together or we will all hang separately.”
Geography in History
Geography plays key roles in shaping history, which is less appreciated by policy makers today than by pre-modern peoples. An essay with titles relating to geography and theory; Eurasian Steppe; Greater Iran; climate, environment, and Eurasian migrations.
Iran and Israel in the Age of Trump II
During his first term, Trump instituted belligerent policies toward Iran. In the upcoming True Promise III strike by Iran, Tehran will seek to hurt Israel badly; and subsequently present Trump with two options: deal (to save Israel) or escalation and regional war. Will he choose wisely?
Iran’s Military Budget Increase: Context
Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.
Israel’s Failed Attack and Iran’s Air Defense Systems
Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.










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