History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Iran now treats hostile rhetoric as casus belli—preemption is on the table. As nuclear and missile programs recover, could Tehran launch blitz to shatter Israel’s OODA loop and paralyze its inner rings before Tel Aviv can move? First mover seizes initiative…
Recently-declassified meeting memoranda reveal Putin’s worrisome opinions of Iran: “rogue state,” “they’re quite nuts,” “they are not primitive people: it was quite a surprise to me.” Putin plots with Bush to curtail Iran’s uranium enrichment; and raises with Bush the possibility of military strikes on Iran: “Then we need to do something. What? Strike?” By “we” does Putin mean joint US-Russian strikes?
Deaths of Iranian generals in the Iran-Iraq War (1980–88) and war against ISIS (2014–18) prove that Iranian Army and IRGC generals lead from the front. Whereas U.S. generals lead from behind: Vietnam (11 KIA); Iraq (0); AFG (1: REMF, killed in the rear). On 13 June, when Israel murdered almost two dozen generals, Iranian Armed Forces swiftly re-grouped and retaliated. The Iranian military is accustomed to losing generals in action and has planned for losses.
China’s satellite network provides Iran with 24/7/365 coverage and real-time updates: SIGINT, terrain mapping, telemetry; radar, optical, and infrared all-weather/day & night imaging, allowing Iran to precisely strike Israeli and U.S. targets. No China, no “boom, boom, Tel Aviv!”
Iran, courtesy of Trump and Netanyahu, has achieved nuclear ambiguity. Its nuclear sites and 408kg trove of highly-enriched uranium survive. Mossad/CIA spies (“IAEA inspectors”) have no physical access to sites; CCTV at every site is off. Iran’s nuclear program, formerly the world’s most open and inspected program, has gone black.
Analysis of SM-2, SM-3, SM-6, PAC-3, and THAAD interceptors used (10/23 to 08/25), costs, and remaining stockpiles. If Iran enters round two of the Iran-Israel War holding nuclear deterrence, Iranian missile barrages can pound Israel into capitulation.
Tel Aviv thought the Islamic Republic would collapse with some strike operations, targeted assassinations, and car bombs. Instead, the Israelis are getting a historic battering as Iranians rally fiercely behind their government and armed forces (link to article at external site).
Iran won. Trump’s confidant, Steve Bannon, explains on video. My amplifications in essay.
Israel wants end to war; Iran plans to prolong war. Israel cannot survive without help; but Iran is prepared to fight alone and grind Israel into capitulating. Israel discovers that “plans don’t survive first contact with the enemy.” Netanyahu dials 1-800-USA HELP.
Iran FM: “no negotiations” with U.S.; Iran Prez: “unconditional end” to war; Iranians unite: millions join anti-Israel/pro-Iran rallies from Ahvaz to Mashhad; “legacy media” propaganda seeks to “manufacture consent” for U.S.-Iran War; air superiority myth (update); Iran pounds Israel.
Perspectives 
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