Category: Warfare and Technology

Operation Epic Fail: SITREP (Day 12)

A hasty roundup for those not following the right Twitter/X and Telegram channels. The war is going swimmingly for US and Israel. Iranian civilians and infrastructure are being targeted by the frustrated enemy, but (1) US bases in Persian Gulf, Jordan, and Iraq are disappearing; (2) all US (THAAD & non-THAAD) radars are gone (= US & Israel are blind); (3) interceptor stocks are dwindling: “Israel’s skies are our highway” (= Iranian missiles and drones freely passing). Israel has imposed strict censorship; and satellite companies like Planet Labs have embargoed release of images for two weeks. But China is releasing images.

Iran’s Decentralized Mosaic Defense

Iran employs a “Decentralized Mosaic Defense” (difaʿ-i muzayiki) command-and-control (2C) structure: “decapitations” have minimal impacts on 2C. This is evident from Iran’s control of the escalation ladder, and the calibrated responses advancing Iran’s strategic objectives. Notes and observations on difaʿ-i muzayiki.

Iran’s Ball Game: Strikes on Arab States

Arab states are being pummeled by Iran and US is not helping them. Gulf Arabs have realized that the Washington Mafia took their “protection money” but never intended to protect them. Breach of contract. Even the Genovese crime family that ran my NYC neighborhood met their obligations. Arab states will fall under Iran’s sway.

Russia-Ukraine War: Russia’s Intelligence Gap in Space

Elon Musk’s shutdown of Starlink prompted me to as ask, “why are Russian soldiers using Starlink? Don’t they have satellite-based comms?” Yes and no. Russia has systems for “Command, Control, and Communications (C3), but no satellite-based network comparable to USA’s and China’s prolific and multifaceted networks used for C3 and ISR.

Iran-Russia Relations: The Declassified Putin-Bush Meeting Memos

Recently-declassified meeting memoranda reveal Putin’s worrisome opinions of Iran: “rogue state,” “they’re quite nuts,” “they are not primitive people: it was quite a surprise to me.” Putin plots with Bush to curtail Iran’s uranium enrichment; and raises with Bush the possibility of military strikes on Iran: “Then we need to do something. What? Strike?” By “we” does Putin mean joint US-Russian strikes?

Iranian Generalship: Leading from the Front

Deaths of Iranian generals in the Iran-Iraq War (1980–88) and war against ISIS (2014–18) prove that Iranian Army and IRGC generals lead from the front. Whereas U.S. generals lead from behind: Vietnam (11 KIA); Iraq (0); AFG (1: REMF, killed in the rear). On 13 June, when Israel murdered almost two dozen generals, Iranian Armed Forces swiftly re-grouped and retaliated. The Iranian military is accustomed to losing generals in action and has planned for losses.

Iran’s Nuclear Ambiguity

Iran, courtesy of Trump and Netanyahu, has achieved nuclear ambiguity. Its nuclear sites and 408kg trove of highly-enriched uranium survive. Mossad/CIA spies (“IAEA inspectors”) have no physical access to sites; CCTV at every site is off. Iran’s nuclear program, formerly the world’s most open and inspected program, has gone black.