Category: Warfare and Technology

Iran’s Assad Calculus: Actual Costs of Support vs Benefits to Iran

The fall of the House of Assad is not a debacle for Iran nor the death knell for the Axis of Resistance. Hizballah will thrive despite the fall of Assad, who was not pulling his weight. Iran appears to have conducted a cost-benefit analysis and determined that the financial and human costs of remaining in Syria and underwriting the Assad regime outweighed strategic and military benefits. Most relationships have inherent timers; the Assad-Iran marriage was ready for dissolution.

FBI Scrubbing “Most Wanted” List of al-Jawlani, leader of HTS

The FBI is scubbing its “Most Wanted” list of references to Muhammad al-Jawlani, the leader of Hayʾat a Tahir al-Shams (HTS)—the principal power in post-Assad Syria. He was the emir of Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaida affiliate in Syria. An image of his “Most Wanted” poster has been preserved, along with a link not yet deleted by the FBI. al-Jawlani is being presented to the public as “rebel,” and according to an interview he recently did with CNN, “a kinder, gentler, and woker” Islamist! Ya Allah!

NATO’s Proxy War on Russia: “Tell Me How This Ends”

When David Petraeus was asked by a journalist at the onset of the Iraq War on the outcome, he replied “Tell Me How This Ends.” A bold but reasonable prediction by me on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War: it will not end through any settlement proposed by Trump. It will end with an unambiguous Russian military victory over Ukraine—NATO’s “battering ram” against Russia.

Russia’s “Oreshnik” Missile System

A classic tale of FAFO. The U.S. quit INF in 2019, freeing Russia to renounce its obligations under INF, and to produce intermediate-range missiles. After the geniuses in Washington and London authorized use by Ukraine of their missile systems to strike inside Russia, the Kremlin showed just one of its newest missile systems: Oreshnik (“Hazel). It’s a beauty. What else does Russia have in store for NATO?

IAEA’s Gift to IRGC

UK, France, and Germany, instigated by US and Israel, promoted an anti-Iran resolution before the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Commission. It passed. This was a gift to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Another “L” (loss) and “own goal” by the Anglo-American foreign policy establishment.

Change in Iran’s Public Posture on ICBMs and Nuclear Weapons

Updated 17 Nov 2024 with two new video links and commentary: Former Iran FM Kamal Kharrazi stated that Tehran reserves right to revise its nuclear doctrine if the country faces an “existential threat;” and that Iran has voluntarily restricted the range of its ballistic missiles out of respect for “European concerns”; however, since Europe does not respect Iran’s security concerns, Tehran need not “be bound by their sensitivities.” Ayatollah Khamenei sent an enigmatic tweet: “We will definitely do everything necessary to prepare the Iranian nation for confronting the Arrogant Powers [plural].”