History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Turkish-, American-, and Israeli-backed HTS terrorists (“rebels” in the parlance of the west) have besieged Aleppo in northern Syria, prompting this photo blog. Background note on HTS, which is derived from al-Qaiʾda, along with an observation on who benefits (cui bono?) from this offensive, are included.
A classic tale of FAFO. The U.S. quit INF in 2019, freeing Russia to renounce its obligations under INF, and to produce intermediate-range missiles. After the geniuses in Washington and London authorized use by Ukraine of their missile systems to strike inside Russia, the Kremlin showed just one of its newest missile systems: Oreshnik (“Hazel). It’s a beauty. What else does Russia have in store for NATO?
UK, France, and Germany, instigated by US and Israel, promoted an anti-Iran resolution before the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Commission. It passed. This was a gift to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Another “L” (loss) and “own goal” by the Anglo-American foreign policy establishment.
Updated 17 Nov 2024 with two new video links and commentary: Former Iran FM Kamal Kharrazi stated that Tehran reserves right to revise its nuclear doctrine if the country faces an “existential threat;” and that Iran has voluntarily restricted the range of its ballistic missiles out of respect for “European concerns”; however, since Europe does not respect Iran’s security concerns, Tehran need not “be bound by their sensitivities.” Ayatollah Khamenei sent an enigmatic tweet: “We will definitely do everything necessary to prepare the Iranian nation for confronting the Arrogant Powers [plural].”
Geography plays key roles in shaping history, which is less appreciated by policy makers today than by pre-modern peoples. An essay with titles relating to geography and theory; Eurasian Steppe; Greater Iran; climate, environment, and Eurasian migrations.
During his first term, Trump instituted belligerent policies toward Iran. In the upcoming True Promise III strike by Iran, Tehran will seek to hurt Israel badly; and subsequently present Trump with two options: deal (to save Israel) or escalation and regional war. Will he choose wisely?
Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.
Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.
Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused minimal damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.
Israel’s 25/26 October 2024 strike on Iran depended heavily on access by IDF aircraft to Jordanian airspace. Jordan defended Israel in April and October by activating the “Arab Dome”—Jordanian air defenses—during Operation True Promise I and II. It is clear to Tehran that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a threat to its security. The next Israeli air attack to traverse Jordanian airspace could deliver nuclear devices. The King of Jordan is the problem. Should Iran de-stabilize the Kingdom and/or decapitate the Midget King
Perspectives 
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