Iran’s Assad Calculus: Actual Costs of Support vs Benefits to Iran

The fall of the House of Assad is not a debacle for Iran nor the death knell for the Axis of Resistance. Hizballah will thrive despite the fall of Assad, who was not pulling his weight. Iran appears to have conducted a cost-benefit analysis and determined that the financial and human costs of remaining in Syria and underwriting the Assad regime outweighed strategic and military benefits. Most relationships have inherent timers; the Assad-Iran marriage was ready for dissolution.

Israel vs Hezbollah: A bigger war game

Link below to my article on impending Hizballah-Israel War. Main points (for wargamers): (1) This is a “War of Choice” for Israel, but a “War of Necessity” for Hizballah and Iran; (2) 2024 is not 2006: new technologies and tactics will be unveiled; (3) Israeli intelligence is overrated; (4) fear ye not Israeli nukes; (5) expect U.S. involvement; (6) Russia’s role: Iran is “too big to fail”; Russia has economic and military investments with Tehran. Will it intervene? Putin has indicated support for a proxy war to payback the US for proxy war against Russia.

IRGC and Shiʿa Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon: ‘Why We Fight’

The essay examines the four stages of developments in the Middle East that gave rise to Shiʿa militias in Lebanon Iraq, and Syria, with support from Iran; and their ultimate goal, as expressed by Sayyid Nasrallah of Hezbollah in his famous ‘T’ hand signal (see image), which indicates that ‘Americans can leave the Mideast vertically, leave horizontally.’