Tag: History

Operation Epic Fail: SITREP (Day 12)

A hasty roundup for those not following the right Twitter/X and Telegram channels. The war is going swimmingly for US and Israel. Iranian civilians and infrastructure are being targeted by the frustrated enemy, but (1) US bases in Persian Gulf, Jordan, and Iraq are disappearing; (2) all US (THAAD & non-THAAD) radars are gone (= US & Israel are blind); (3) interceptor stocks are dwindling: “Israel’s skies are our highway” (= Iranian missiles and drones freely passing). Israel has imposed strict censorship; and satellite companies like Planet Labs have embargoed release of images for two weeks. But China is releasing images.

US-Iran Showdown: The Stakes for Iran, Russia, and China

Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.

Russia-Ukraine War: Russia’s Intelligence Gap in Space

Elon Musk’s shutdown of Starlink prompted me to as ask, “why are Russian soldiers using Starlink? Don’t they have satellite-based comms?” Yes and no. Russia has systems for “Command, Control, and Communications (C3), but no satellite-based network comparable to USA’s and China’s prolific and multifaceted networks used for C3 and ISR.

Émigré ‘Leaders’ & Regime Change: Caveat Emptor

Reza Shah Pahlavi, Maryam Rajavi (Mujahideen-e Khalq), and María Corina Machado have sold “regime change” to their U.S. and Israeli patrons, but sales pitches of troops being “greeted as liberators,” with freedom to plunder the victim’s oil & gas, will prove bogus and deadly. Ahmad Chalabi, the darling of Iraq War neocons, is the example.

Iranian Generalship: Leading from the Front

Deaths of Iranian generals in the Iran-Iraq War (1980–88) and war against ISIS (2014–18) prove that Iranian Army and IRGC generals lead from the front. Whereas U.S. generals lead from behind: Vietnam (11 KIA); Iraq (0); AFG (1: REMF, killed in the rear). On 13 June, when Israel murdered almost two dozen generals, Iranian Armed Forces swiftly re-grouped and retaliated. The Iranian military is accustomed to losing generals in action and has planned for losses.

Iran’s Nuclear Ambiguity

Iran, courtesy of Trump and Netanyahu, has achieved nuclear ambiguity. Its nuclear sites and 408kg trove of highly-enriched uranium survive. Mossad/CIA spies (“IAEA inspectors”) have no physical access to sites; CCTV at every site is off. Iran’s nuclear program, formerly the world’s most open and inspected program, has gone black.