Israel’s 25/26 October 2024 strike on Iran depended heavily on access by IDF aircraft to Jordanian airspace. Jordan defended Israel in April and October by activating the “Arab Dome”—Jordanian air defenses—during Operation True Promise I and II. It is clear to Tehran that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a threat to its security. The next Israeli air attack to traverse Jordanian airspace could deliver nuclear devices. The King of Jordan is the problem. Should Iran de-stabilize the Kingdom and/or decapitate the Midget King
Tag: History
Strategikon of Maurice: Book XI, § 1, “Dealing with the Persians”
Strategikon, a practical military manual of lasting influence, is attributed to Maurice (r. 582–602), last of the Justinian emperors of Byzantine. His chapter on the Persians (Iranians) is revealing of mindset vis-à-vis Iranian fortitude and patience; and military and diplomatic strategies. This holds true today. I have reproduced in pertinent part two paragraphs from Strategikon with annotations that relate to the current military situation.
Russia’s Economic Windfalls from the Ukraine War
Russia is experiencing higher budget outlays in prosecuting the Ukraine War, but these expenditures should be considered “investments” because they will generate revenue streams for decades after the war. Russian investors have acquired at steep discounts the multi-billion dollar investments made in Russia by foreign companies; and the Russian Federation will annex many of Ukraine’s most fertile agricultural lands; and lucrative hydrocarbon reserves and mineral deposits.
Ruminations on Iran’s Retaliation
Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.
On Escalation Domination, High-Value Targets, and Black Swans
As we await Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, quick looks at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.
Iranian Presidential Election
Preliminary thoughts on the Iranian presidential election runoff concluded on 5 July 2024.
American democracy: Voters to pick between two poisons, strychnine or cyanide
“The American ‘two-party system’ lie was exposed as a one-party system...Until recently, both parties had social and economic agendas that they touted [but now] they no longer pretend to care about Americans. [Trump and Biden, however,] are united in dutifully serving the interests of Israel.” Link to external site is in the post.
Hizballah and Ansarallah (Update)
An article by me on the impending Hizballah-Israel war will be published at a media site soon. A link will be supplied in a future update. For now, quick notes re Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadah, head of IRGC Aerospace and his comments on preparedness for the next operation against Israel; and statement by the leader of Ansarallah, Abd al-Malik al-Houthi, on targeting the USS Roosevelt in the Red Sea.
The Alexander Trilogy by Mary Renault
Mary Renault is justly lauded as a groundbreaking LGBT authoress, but this detracts from her brilliance as a historian of ancient Greece and Persia. She methodically weaves history, geography, and Greek literature with fiction to depict the life of Alexander the Great: his childhood, love for Hephaistion, Philip’s court, tempestuous relationship with mum, Olympias, rise to power, and conquest of Asia. Renault’s books, which I started reading as a twelve-year-old, shaped my life, and developed in me, inter alia, a passion for Iran. The essay is part literary criticism, part history, part travelogue. Renault inspired my travels in Iran.
The OSINT Epidemic: Ignorance, Misinformation, Propaganda
Everyone is an OSINT expert these days. Twitter is swarming with OSINT accounts purporting expertise on Russia-Ukraine War and/or Israel-Palestine conflict. Businesses are seeking applicants with expertise in “OSINT tools, techniques and methodologies” and “HUMINT tradecraft” for sundry “threat intelligence” positions. Most OSINT experts have no intelligence or military background. They often supply propaganda, misinformation, or “confirmation bias” through ignorance, or, to satisfy the demands of their followers and/or paymasters.










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