History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
“With Israel pushing the US toward a new war against Iran, the IAEA's anti-Iran resolution has already backfired, undermining Tehran's new negotiations-friendly administration, and handing a proverbial gift to the nation's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” My essay. Link to article is at my website.
When David Petraeus was asked by a journalist at the onset of the Iraq War on the outcome, he replied “Tell Me How This Ends.” A bold but reasonable prediction by me on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War: it will not end through any settlement proposed by Trump. It will end with an unambiguous Russian military victory over Ukraine—NATO’s “battering ram” against Russia.
Second photoblog on Aleppo, Syria, and its surroundings. Includes brief comments on St. Simeon and the 700–750 abandoned settlements in northern Syria dating to the transition period from Roman rule to Byzantine rule.
A classic tale of FAFO. The U.S. quit INF in 2019, freeing Russia to renounce its obligations under INF, and to produce intermediate-range missiles. After the geniuses in Washington and London authorized use by Ukraine of their missile systems to strike inside Russia, the Kremlin showed just one of its newest missile systems: Oreshnik (“Hazel). It’s a beauty. What else does Russia have in store for NATO?
Geography plays key roles in shaping history, which is less appreciated by policy makers today than by pre-modern peoples. An essay with titles relating to geography and theory; Eurasian Steppe; Greater Iran; climate, environment, and Eurasian migrations.
Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.
Israel’s 25/26 October 2024 strike on Iran depended heavily on access by IDF aircraft to Jordanian airspace. Jordan defended Israel in April and October by activating the “Arab Dome”—Jordanian air defenses—during Operation True Promise I and II. It is clear to Tehran that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a threat to its security. The next Israeli air attack to traverse Jordanian airspace could deliver nuclear devices. The King of Jordan is the problem. Should Iran de-stabilize the Kingdom and/or decapitate the Midget King
Strategikon, a practical military manual of lasting influence, is attributed to Maurice (r. 582–602), last of the Justinian emperors of Byzantine. His chapter on the Persians (Iranians) is revealing of mindset vis-à-vis Iranian fortitude and patience; and military and diplomatic strategies. This holds true today. I have reproduced in pertinent part two paragraphs from Strategikon with annotations that relate to the current military situation.
Russia is experiencing higher budget outlays in prosecuting the Ukraine War, but these expenditures should be considered “investments” because they will generate revenue streams for decades after the war. Russian investors have acquired at steep discounts the multi-billion dollar investments made in Russia by foreign companies; and the Russian Federation will annex many of Ukraine’s most fertile agricultural lands; and lucrative hydrocarbon reserves and mineral deposits.
Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.
Perspectives 
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