History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Geography plays key roles in shaping history, which is less appreciated by policy makers today than by pre-modern peoples. An essay with titles relating to geography and theory; Eurasian Steppe; Greater Iran; climate, environment, and Eurasian migrations.
During his first term, Trump instituted belligerent policies toward Iran. In the upcoming True Promise III strike by Iran, Tehran will seek to hurt Israel badly; and subsequently present Trump with two options: deal (to save Israel) or escalation and regional war. Will he choose wisely?
Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.
Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.
Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused minimal damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.
Israel’s 25/26 October 2024 strike on Iran depended heavily on access by IDF aircraft to Jordanian airspace. Jordan defended Israel in April and October by activating the “Arab Dome”—Jordanian air defenses—during Operation True Promise I and II. It is clear to Tehran that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a threat to its security. The next Israeli air attack to traverse Jordanian airspace could deliver nuclear devices. The King of Jordan is the problem. Should Iran de-stabilize the Kingdom and/or decapitate the Midget King
Strategikon, a practical military manual of lasting influence, is attributed to Maurice (r. 582–602), last of the Justinian emperors of Byzantine. His chapter on the Persians (Iranians) is revealing of mindset vis-à-vis Iranian fortitude and patience; and military and diplomatic strategies. This holds true today. I have reproduced in pertinent part two paragraphs from Strategikon with annotations that relate to the current military situation.
A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?
I published an essay “Democratization of Warfare: Abrams vs. Ghoul” in March. This update relates to the impending clash between Iran and Israel/U.S. Will Iran be able to overwhelm Israeli and American defenses?
Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.
Perspectives 
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