History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Israel’s real gripe is that Iran is a nationalist, non-vassal state with 90 million literate and educated people. If Iran is allowed to freely develop, it will become an economic and military superpower. Hence, permanent sanctions to hobble Iran. In the absence of diplomacy, Tehran has only one path left: war with Israel and U.S.
“Trump’s exploratory outreach to Iran, presented as a clean slate, stands in stark contrast to the turbulence of his hawkish first term. Is this a sincere effort at diplomacy or a calculated salvo to throw his opponents off guard?” My essay, published by Cradle Media, can be accessed at the link published on my site. For copyright reasons, I cannot post the full text. Thanks.
Trump’s firing of anti-Iran hawk Brian Hook and appointment of Michael DiMino as Dep. Sec. of Defense (Middle East) have angered anti-Iran elements in U.S. and Israel. Is Trump shifting his stance on Iran?
Rashid Khalidi’s statement that the Axis (AoR) “was designed by Iran to protect the Iranian regime. . . . It wasn’t designed to protect Palestine,” is ahistorical on multiple levels, but raises questions such as (1) who is in/out of AoR?; and (2) what is Iran’s strategic goal?; how will AoR help Iran achieve its objectives?
The fall of the House of Assad is not a debacle for Iran nor the death knell for the Axis of Resistance. Hizballah will thrive despite the fall of Assad, who was not pulling his weight. Iran appears to have conducted a cost-benefit analysis and determined that the financial and human costs of remaining in Syria and underwriting the Assad regime outweighed strategic and military benefits. Most relationships have inherent timers; the Assad-Iran marriage was ready for dissolution.
“With Israel pushing the US toward a new war against Iran, the IAEA's anti-Iran resolution has already backfired, undermining Tehran's new negotiations-friendly administration, and handing a proverbial gift to the nation's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” My essay. Link to article is at my website.
UK, France, and Germany, instigated by US and Israel, promoted an anti-Iran resolution before the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Commission. It passed. This was a gift to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Another “L” (loss) and “own goal” by the Anglo-American foreign policy establishment.
Updated 17 Nov 2024 with two new video links and commentary: Former Iran FM Kamal Kharrazi stated that Tehran reserves right to revise its nuclear doctrine if the country faces an “existential threat;” and that Iran has voluntarily restricted the range of its ballistic missiles out of respect for “European concerns”; however, since Europe does not respect Iran’s security concerns, Tehran need not “be bound by their sensitivities.” Ayatollah Khamenei sent an enigmatic tweet: “We will definitely do everything necessary to prepare the Iranian nation for confronting the Arrogant Powers [plural].”
During his first term, Trump instituted belligerent policies toward Iran. In the upcoming True Promise III strike by Iran, Tehran will seek to hurt Israel badly; and subsequently present Trump with two options: deal (to save Israel) or escalation and regional war. Will he choose wisely?
Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.
Perspectives 
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