History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
DB/ANABASIS, a blueprint drawn by Luis Rueda and John Maguire of CIA’s “Iraq Operations Group” in 2002 to break Iraq before the full-scale U.S.-led invasion, has been revived against Iran, with sabotage, assassinations, and psychological warfare being conducted inside Iran by CIA and Mossad assets. Article published at external news site. Follow link to read the article.
New York Times: “Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia,” examines Operation Rough Rider— the failed air campaign—against Yemen. Key takeaways vis-à-vis US-Israel air campaign against Iran. Gist: Iran holds the “trump” cards.
U.S.-Iran talks in Muscat and Rome have faltered due to shifting American demands, and Israeli machinations to derail an agreement. What are Iran’s choices? A decisive Iranian victory in a war with U.S. and Israel may be Tehran’s only path to permanent peace.
Russia’s non-delivery to Iran of twenty-five Su–35 multirole fighters may be indicative of Russia’s reluctance to overtly arm Iran at a moment when Iran is threatened by Israel and U.S., thereby antagonizing Israel’s primary protector just when U.S.-Russia negotiations could yield diplomatic and economic benefits to Russia.
A primer on why Iran insisted on Oman as venue for talks. U.S. sought UAE—its vassal state—as venue for the Araghchi-Witkoff indirect meetings, but Iran held firm.
Trump has re-imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei closed the JCPOA file. Where does Iran go from here? The U.S. oil embargo on Japan and Pearl Harbor suggest military scenarios.
Oh, goody. Finally, a war that I can fully support! Brief comments on The Washington Post “leak” is below.
Israel’s real gripe is that Iran is a nationalist, non-vassal state with 90 million literate and educated people. If Iran is allowed to freely develop, it will become an economic and military superpower. Hence, permanent sanctions to hobble Iran. In the absence of diplomacy, Tehran has only one path left: war with Israel and U.S.
In a speech to the military, Ayatollah Khamenei took a firm stance against new negotiations with the U.S. Subtitled video at link, with my comments.
Popular analyses claim Iran is “weaker than it has even been since the Islamic Revolution” and the “fabled” Axis of Resistance has been badly damaged. Time is ripe for U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Others, building on these pedestrian analyses, claim Iran is desperate for a nuclear deal and sanctions relief. But while Iran does need relief, Israel and U.S. need an accommodation with Iran because they cannot defeat Iran militarily. E3 must be excluded from negotiations with Iran because it will derail talks. U.S. and Iran must talk directly.
Perspectives 
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