History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
UK, France, and Germany, instigated by US and Israel, promoted an anti-Iran resolution before the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Commission. It passed. This was a gift to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Another “L” (loss) and “own goal” by the Anglo-American foreign policy establishment.
Updated 17 Nov 2024 with two new video links and commentary: Former Iran FM Kamal Kharrazi stated that Tehran reserves right to revise its nuclear doctrine if the country faces an “existential threat;” and that Iran has voluntarily restricted the range of its ballistic missiles out of respect for “European concerns”; however, since Europe does not respect Iran’s security concerns, Tehran need not “be bound by their sensitivities.” Ayatollah Khamenei sent an enigmatic tweet: “We will definitely do everything necessary to prepare the Iranian nation for confronting the Arrogant Powers [plural].”
Trump’s nominations are MIGA (“Make Israel Great Again”) zealots who harbor hawkish anti-Iran, anti-Russia and anti-China sentiments. Trump Administration II will fortify the Iran-Russia-China “Tripartite Alliance.” Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran realize that “we must all hang together or we will all hang separately.”
During his first term, Trump instituted belligerent policies toward Iran. In the upcoming True Promise III strike by Iran, Tehran will seek to hurt Israel badly; and subsequently present Trump with two options: deal (to save Israel) or escalation and regional war. Will he choose wisely?
Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.
Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.
Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused minimal damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.
Israel’s 25/26 October 2024 strike on Iran depended heavily on access by IDF aircraft to Jordanian airspace. Jordan defended Israel in April and October by activating the “Arab Dome”—Jordanian air defenses—during Operation True Promise I and II. It is clear to Tehran that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a threat to its security. The next Israeli air attack to traverse Jordanian airspace could deliver nuclear devices. The King of Jordan is the problem. Should Iran de-stabilize the Kingdom and/or decapitate the Midget King
Strategikon, a practical military manual of lasting influence, is attributed to Maurice (r. 582–602), last of the Justinian emperors of Byzantine. His chapter on the Persians (Iranians) is revealing of mindset vis-à-vis Iranian fortitude and patience; and military and diplomatic strategies. This holds true today. I have reproduced in pertinent part two paragraphs from Strategikon with annotations that relate to the current military situation.
A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?
Perspectives 
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