History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
I published an essay “Democratization of Warfare: Abrams vs. Ghoul” in March. This update relates to the impending clash between Iran and Israel/U.S. Will Iran be able to overwhelm Israeli and American defenses?
Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.
Vladimir Putin is incensed by Kiev’s recent incursion into Kursk, which surely had NATO/US support. He has pledged to support America’s enemies. If NATO/US can supply Ukraine and say, “it doesn’t matter how they [the weapons] are used,” Russia can also supply “someone with something [and say] we do not control anything.” Game on!
As we await Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, quick looks at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.
Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?
Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?
This is an updated post. A third video has been released by Hizballah of their Hudhud ISR UAV penetrating deep into Occupied Palestine and acquiring imagery of sensitive intelligence and military assets of the Israel Occupation Force. Like the first two surveillance videos, this, too has caused “shock and awe” in Israel. Fresh commentary and four videos are at my website.
Information is just coming in on the “Yafa” (“Jaffa”; called “Tel Aviv” by Israelis) UAV that struck near the U.S. Consulate in Tel Aviv on Friday, 19 July 2024, ca. 3:10 a.m. Preliminary details on the “kamikaze” drone, along with three videos, are in the article.
Link below to my article on impending Hizballah-Israel War. Main points (for wargamers): (1) This is a “War of Choice” for Israel, but a “War of Necessity” for Hizballah and Iran; (2) 2024 is not 2006: new technologies and tactics will be unveiled; (3) Israeli intelligence is overrated; (4) fear ye not Israeli nukes; (5) expect U.S. involvement; (6) Russia’s role: Iran is “too big to fail”; Russia has economic and military investments with Tehran. Will it intervene? Putin has indicated support for a proxy war to payback the US for proxy war against Russia.
Preliminary thoughts on the Iranian presidential election runoff concluded on 5 July 2024.
Perspectives 
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