History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Signals from Tehran indicate either that a shift in its nuclear weapons policy has taken place, or policy review is ongoing within power circles. A Senior IRGC commander, Ahmad Haghtalab, said: Israel’s provocations may lead Tehran ‘to revise and deviate from the previously declared nuclear policies and considerations.’ My view is that Iran has already ‘crossed the Rubicon.’
Former U.S. Ambassador Chas Freeman explains why Iran’s precision strike on Israel was a huge success. Subtitled video and transcript below.
My article, ‘Israeli Air Defenses are not Untouchable,’ on how IRGC developed an impressive arsenal of drones and ballistic missiles over twenty years, was published at the Cradle (link in post). An ‘expert’ on IRGC, Mr. Kasra Aarabi, wrote, ‘IRGC neither has the doctrine nor the capabilities for direct war with Israel…’ Oops. This is an example of the ongoing ‘competency crisis,’ where credentialed ex-military officers and ‘experts’ at think-tanks supply US/UK governments with analyses that lead to cockeyed policies. GIGO: ‘Garbage-In, Garbage-Out.’
My thesis on IRGC strategy vis-à-vis Israel, ‘How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’? Slowly and methodically,’ published at the Cradle was mentioned (with indignation!) by Israel’s ambassador to the U.N. during the 15 April 2024 U.N. Security Council meeting on Iran’s strike on Israel. Video below.
David Cameron condemns Iran but says if a British diplomatic facility, had been bombed, Britain would, ‘Well, we would take the very strong action.’ But Vladimir Putin praised Iran for taking action to ‘punish the aggressor.’ One does not need a PhD in international relations to see why the Global South is fleeing the ’collective west,' and why Iran and Russia are stronger together.
Following the U.S.-backed Israeli regime’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iranians affiliated with the Islamic Republic have made statements that suggest Tehran’s nuclear weapons policy may have shifted. A 180° shift by Tehran is highly-probable.
Reproduced below with an update to my tweet (X: @S_Mahendrarajah) from 12 April 2024 on how IRGC is generating ‘chatter’ to deceive the enemy’s (U.S. and Israel) electronic and human intelligence systems during IRGC’s preparations for the 14 April attack on Israel.
Media and social media are buzzing about ‘imminent’ strikes by Iran, with commentators claiming that Iran will not strike because it has ‘been trying to avoid [war] for decades.’ Why has Iran avoided confrontation with Israel and United States for ‘decades’? Because IRGC was preparing for an inevitable conflict and needed time to develop its arsenal.
Hamas has demonstrated superior grasp of the importance of winning the ‘information battlespace’ by publicizing battlefield successes. Their ‘info wars’ build on techniques devised by Iraqi insurgents and al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI)—techniques that migrated to the Afghan battlefield.
Assessment by an Israeli defense analyst on Israel’s (1) diplomatic disaster and relations with allies; (2) internal political crises; (3) parlous military situation; and (4) shambolic state of the economy. All this before Israel possibly enters into a war with Iran consequent to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus
Perspectives 
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