Iran’s Assad Calculus: Actual Costs of Support vs Benefits to Iran

The fall of the House of Assad is not a debacle for Iran nor the death knell for the Axis of Resistance. Hizballah will thrive despite the fall of Assad, who was not pulling his weight. Iran appears to have conducted a cost-benefit analysis and determined that the financial and human costs of remaining in Syria and underwriting the Assad regime outweighed strategic and military benefits. Most relationships have inherent timers; the Assad-Iran marriage was ready for dissolution.

IRGC and Shiʿa Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon: ‘Why We Fight’

The essay examines the four stages of developments in the Middle East that gave rise to Shiʿa militias in Lebanon Iraq, and Syria, with support from Iran; and their ultimate goal, as expressed by Sayyid Nasrallah of Hezbollah in his famous ‘T’ hand signal (see image), which indicates that ‘Americans can leave the Mideast vertically, leave horizontally.’