Tag: Middle East

Operation Epic Fail: SITREP (Day 12)

A hasty roundup for those not following the right Twitter/X and Telegram channels. The war is going swimmingly for US and Israel. Iranian civilians and infrastructure are being targeted by the frustrated enemy, but (1) US bases in Persian Gulf, Jordan, and Iraq are disappearing; (2) all US (THAAD & non-THAAD) radars are gone (= US & Israel are blind); (3) interceptor stocks are dwindling: “Israel’s skies are our highway” (= Iranian missiles and drones freely passing). Israel has imposed strict censorship; and satellite companies like Planet Labs have embargoed release of images for two weeks. But China is releasing images.

Iran’s Decentralized Mosaic Defense

Iran employs a “Decentralized Mosaic Defense” (difaʿ-i muzayiki) command-and-control (2C) structure: “decapitations” have minimal impacts on 2C. This is evident from Iran’s control of the escalation ladder, and the calibrated responses advancing Iran’s strategic objectives. Notes and observations on difaʿ-i muzayiki.

Iran’s Ball Game: Strikes on Arab States

Arab states are being pummeled by Iran and US is not helping them. Gulf Arabs have realized that the Washington Mafia took their “protection money” but never intended to protect them. Breach of contract. Even the Genovese crime family that ran my NYC neighborhood met their obligations. Arab states will fall under Iran’s sway.

The Allure of Assassinations

US and Israel view assassinations as a straight line to “victory.” But killing leaders and generals will not collapse nation-states with sound political-military structures. The assumption that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) rests on a “cult of personality”—Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei—is facile. Assassinations have unintended consequences.

US-Iran Showdown: The Stakes for Iran, Russia, and China

Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.

Russia-Ukraine War: Russia’s Intelligence Gap in Space

Elon Musk’s shutdown of Starlink prompted me to as ask, “why are Russian soldiers using Starlink? Don’t they have satellite-based comms?” Yes and no. Russia has systems for “Command, Control, and Communications (C3), but no satellite-based network comparable to USA’s and China’s prolific and multifaceted networks used for C3 and ISR.

Iran-Russia Relations: The Declassified Putin-Bush Meeting Memos

Recently-declassified meeting memoranda reveal Putin’s worrisome opinions of Iran: “rogue state,” “they’re quite nuts,” “they are not primitive people: it was quite a surprise to me.” Putin plots with Bush to curtail Iran’s uranium enrichment; and raises with Bush the possibility of military strikes on Iran: “Then we need to do something. What? Strike?” By “we” does Putin mean joint US-Russian strikes?