History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused minimal damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.
Strategikon, a practical military manual of lasting influence, is attributed to Maurice (r. 582–602), last of the Justinian emperors of Byzantine. His chapter on the Persians (Iranians) is revealing of mindset vis-à-vis Iranian fortitude and patience; and military and diplomatic strategies. This holds true today. I have reproduced in pertinent part two paragraphs from Strategikon with annotations that relate to the current military situation.
Russia is experiencing higher budget outlays in prosecuting the Ukraine War, but these expenditures should be considered “investments” because they will generate revenue streams for decades after the war. Russian investors have acquired at steep discounts the multi-billion dollar investments made in Russia by foreign companies; and the Russian Federation will annex many of Ukraine’s most fertile agricultural lands; and lucrative hydrocarbon reserves and mineral deposits.
A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?
I published an essay “Democratization of Warfare: Abrams vs. Ghoul” in March. This update relates to the impending clash between Iran and Israel/U.S. Will Iran be able to overwhelm Israeli and American defenses?
Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.
Vladimir Putin is incensed by Kiev’s recent incursion into Kursk, which surely had NATO/US support. He has pledged to support America’s enemies. If NATO/US can supply Ukraine and say, “it doesn’t matter how they [the weapons] are used,” Russia can also supply “someone with something [and say] we do not control anything.” Game on!
Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?
Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?
This is an updated post. A third video has been released by Hizballah of their Hudhud ISR UAV penetrating deep into Occupied Palestine and acquiring imagery of sensitive intelligence and military assets of the Israel Occupation Force. Like the first two surveillance videos, this, too has caused “shock and awe” in Israel. Fresh commentary and four videos are at my website.
Perspectives 
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