Israel’s Failed Attack and Iran’s Air Defense Systems

Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.

Why Iran Must Respond to Israel’s Aggression

Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused minimal damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.

Strategikon of Maurice: Book XI, § 1, “Dealing with the Persians”

Strategikon, a practical military manual of lasting influence, is attributed to Maurice (r. 582–602), last of the Justinian emperors of Byzantine. His chapter on the Persians (Iranians) is revealing of mindset vis-à-vis Iranian fortitude and patience; and military and diplomatic strategies. This holds true today. I have reproduced in pertinent part two paragraphs from Strategikon with annotations that relate to the current military situation.

Russia’s Economic Windfalls from the Ukraine War

Russia is experiencing higher budget outlays in prosecuting the Ukraine War, but these expenditures should be considered “investments” because they will generate revenue streams for decades after the war. Russian investors have acquired at steep discounts the multi-billion dollar investments made in Russia by foreign companies; and the Russian Federation will annex many of Ukraine’s most fertile agricultural lands; and lucrative hydrocarbon reserves and mineral deposits.

Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Fork in the Road?

A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?

Democratization of Warfare: Iran Edition

I published an essay “Democratization of Warfare: Abrams vs. Ghoul” in March. This update relates to the impending clash between Iran and Israel/U.S. Will Iran be able to overwhelm Israeli and American defenses?

Ruminations on Iran’s Retaliation

Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.

Kiev’s Kursk Incursion and Implications for Iran

Vladimir Putin is incensed by Kiev’s recent incursion into Kursk, which surely had NATO/US support. He has pledged to support America’s enemies. If NATO/US can supply Ukraine and say, “it doesn’t matter how they [the weapons] are used,” Russia can also supply “someone with something [and say] we do not control anything.” Game on!

Russia-Iran Military Exchanges: Part 4

Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?

Iran’s ICBM Program

Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?