History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Russia’s non-delivery to Iran of twenty-five Su–35 multirole fighters may be indicative of Russia’s reluctance to overtly arm Iran at a moment when Iran is threatened by Israel and U.S., thereby antagonizing Israel’s primary protector just when U.S.-Russia negotiations could yield diplomatic and economic benefits to Russia.
A primer on why Iran insisted on Oman as venue for talks. U.S. sought UAE—its vassal state—as venue for the Araghchi-Witkoff indirect meetings, but Iran held firm.
The death on 4 March 2025 of Oleg Gordievsky, British intelligence’s mole in the KGB, prompts me to write about his escape from the Soviet Union in July 1985, which had the hallmarks of a Hollywood thriller.
Vladimir Kryuchkov (1924–2007) is best known for the failed August 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev. He oversaw two of America’s worst Cold War intelligence breaches, Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen. Kryuchkov took measures to deflect attention from both double-agents during CIA/FBI mole hunts. His success at deceiving CIA allowed both moles to operate for longer than they probably should have.
Trump has re-imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei closed the JCPOA file. Where does Iran go from here? The U.S. oil embargo on Japan and Pearl Harbor suggest military scenarios.
Oh, goody. Finally, a war that I can fully support! Brief comments on The Washington Post “leak” is below.
Israel’s real gripe is that Iran is a nationalist, non-vassal state with 90 million literate and educated people. If Iran is allowed to freely develop, it will become an economic and military superpower. Hence, permanent sanctions to hobble Iran. In the absence of diplomacy, Tehran has only one path left: war with Israel and U.S.
Yalta Conference (Crimea), 8–11 February 1945, was handily won by Stalin due to superior intelligence provided by NKGB on British and American thinking.
In a speech to the military, Ayatollah Khamenei took a firm stance against new negotiations with the U.S. Subtitled video at link, with my comments.
Popular analyses claim Iran is “weaker than it has even been since the Islamic Revolution” and the “fabled” Axis of Resistance has been badly damaged. Time is ripe for U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Others, building on these pedestrian analyses, claim Iran is desperate for a nuclear deal and sanctions relief. But while Iran does need relief, Israel and U.S. need an accommodation with Iran because they cannot defeat Iran militarily. E3 must be excluded from negotiations with Iran because it will derail talks. U.S. and Iran must talk directly.
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