Tehran’s Responses to ‘Maximum Pressure Campaign’ and ‘Bomb Iran’ Threats

‘Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you’

Joseph Heller, Catch-22

Preamble

Nobody likes a blowhard or bully—and the United States is a loud-mouthed bully. Since the start of the ‘you are either with us or against us’ era of U.S. foreign policy (2001), Sunni and Shia, Russians, Chinese, Latin Americans, Africans, and Asians have come to despise the U.S. for interfering in their domestic and/or foreign affairs; and for capriciously imposing sanctions against them for internal policies that displease the White House or some influential political group—like the Israel Lobby or LGBTQ+ community. To illustrate, Washington sanctioned Uganda for enacting domestic policies that upset American LGBTQ+ activists. Iran has been bullied by U.S. for decades. Tehran’s reaction after Trump unilaterally exited JCPOA and began its ‘maximum pressure campaign’ was best expressed by Howard Beale: ‘I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore.’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdQCPlAZjbY

Iranians’ dislike and distrust of Britain and America has roots that extend to the earth’s core. Foreign interference in Iran’s economic and political affairs is a convoluted history that cannot be recounted here. Let us stay with, say, the last 120 years of outside interference in a proud and sovereign nation’s internal affairs. Iranians’ experiences with foreign powers have shaped their views about the ‘west.’ These angry and distrustful, possibly ‘paranoid’ outlooks, are not limited to the religious, political, and military leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but extend to ordinary Iranians.

Foreign Interference in Iran since 1900

Iran had a Constitutional Revolution (inquilab-i mashruti), 1905–09, which was quashed by the armed forces of Britain and Tsarist Russia.[1] This was a broad-based revolution that, if it had been nursed and allowed to flower, would have created the first constitutional and democratic state in the Middle East.[2] Iranians have told me that the Second Iranian Revolution (1977–79) was a continuation of the aspirations that had fueled the First Iranian Revolution (1905–09). Thwarting of the laudable goals of 1905–09; Anglo-Soviet deposition of Reza Shah (r. 1924–41); Allied military occupation of Iran, 1941–46, and industrial-scale theft of Iranian agricultural and energy resources, 1941–46, leading to famine and deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iranians; overthrow by CIA and SIS (MI6) of the elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddeq (1953), gave rise to disgust and anger at the existing state of affairs; distrust of foreign powers (viz., UK and USA); and finally, the fury that erupted in 1977, culminating in the expulsion of Mohammad Reza Shah (r. 1941–79).

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was created to protect the revolution, viz., prevent Washington from reversing the popular will expressed between 1977 and 1979. This is IRGC’s remit.

Neo-Con and Israeli Agendas Merge After 9/11

This brings us to contemporary times. The terrorist attacks of 9/11 afforded American neo-conservatives the opportunity to enact long-standing ambitions to de-stabilize and overthrow governments in Syria, Iraq, and Iraq. This comported with aspects of Israel’s ‘Yidon Plan’ (1982),[3] which sought to dismantle and re-organize Arab states surrounding Israel, including Jordan and Egypt. The ‘Yidon Plan,’ although not shelved, was updated by the ‘Perle Plan’ (1996) written for Binyamin Netanyahu.[4] The Perle Plan focused on de-stabilizing Iran, Syria, and Iraq. Richard Perle, as Chairman, Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee (2001–03), Doug Feith, as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (2001–05), and their Jewish-American compatriots (Paul Wolfowitz, Ari Fleischer, David Frum, et al.) transformed the foreign policy of Israel into the foreign policy of USA.

CIA’s Plan for Iraq

On 12 September 2001, while the Twin Towers were still smoldering and the White House had not even decided on actions against the Taliban and al-Qaʾida, Paul Wolfowitz and his allies in the U.S. Gov. and Israel set their sights on Iraq. Two CIA ‘covert ops’ specialists from Director William Casey’s days (1981–87) were taken out of mothballs and sent to Langley to concoct a plan to de-stabilize Iraq. Hence, operation DB/ANABASIS (DB is CIA’s country code for Iraq). ANABASIS was endorsed by DCI George Tenet, but superseded by plans for the invasion of Iraq.

CIA’s Plan for Iran

ANABASIS was not forgotten—except by historians. The framework for ANABASIS survives—under a different code name—in ongoing de-stabilization activities against Iran: sanction Iran, disrupt Iran’s domestic finances and global supply networks; arm, train, and deploy Iranian minority groups (Arabs, Azeris, Baluchis, Kurds), to agitate, subvert, and sabotage inside Iran; create pretext for the U.S. to ignite war with Iran. The Iranian terror group that revolves around the cult of (late) Masoud Rajavi and wife, Maryam Rajavi, Mojahidin-e Khalq (MeK). MeK had been designated on 8 October 1997 as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) for its multi-faceted terror campaigns inside Iran that killed or maimed tens of thousands of Iranians. MeK was de-listed as a FTO in 2012 by Obama and anti-Iran fanatics in both political parties.[5] MeK, which had been collaborating with Saddam Hussein against their Iranian brethren during the Iran-Iraq War, were trapped inside Iraq following the 2003 U.S-led invasion. MeK was transferred from Iraqi camps to Albania. MeK launches cyber and terror attacks on Iran from Albania, but since Albania is a NATO member, Iran cannot strike back without triggering NATO Article Five.

Maximum Pressure

JCPOA, which was supposed to curtail Iran’s nuclear program and bring sanctions relief and economic benefits to Iran and western investors, never got off the ground. Iran complied, but the U.S. Gov did not. Obama and his senior officials surreptitiously informed banks and businesses to avoid investing in Iran. Tehran, however, tried its best to encourage western investment, by, for instance, placing a $20 billion order for commercial aircraft from Boeing. Israelis, and their lobby in US were opposed to JCPOA.[6] They found an ally in Trump, Mike Pence, and Mike Pompeo. U.S. unilaterally quit JCPOA in May 2018 and applied ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on everything Iran-related. America’s ‘vassal states’ followed by either re-imposing sanctions, or failing to honor existing agreements, including the provisions of JCPOA that did not require U.S. involvement. Trump’s abandonment of JCPOA at the behest of his boss in Tel Aviv cost thousands of American jobs; for example, at Boeing, when the $20 billion Iranian contract was cancelled.

Since 2002 (‘Axis of Evil’ speech), Iran has been subjected to an endless diarrhea of threats from Israelis and Americans (Bush, Obama, Biden, Trump, Bolton, Lindsey Graham, et al.). For years, Israel and U.S. had been striking covertly and overtly against Iranian targets. Stuxnet, murders of scientists, and assassination of Haji Qasem Suleimani. Every act of violence or sabotage, irrespective of whether traceable to U.S. or Israel, including actions by domestic groups (Kurdish or Baluchi separatists) and Islamist terror groups (ISIS, Jaysh al-Adl, Jundallah, etc.), is attributed to U.S. and Israel. IRGC follows Auric Goldfinger’s logic: ‘Mr. Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action”!’ IRGC general staff have not been lounging around drinking tea waiting for American bombs to fall. They have been preparing for war.

Iranian Responses

In a forthcoming two-part series, ‘Coalition of the Sanctioned’: Iran–Russia–China ‘Tripartite Alliance,’ I shall address the consequences of American actions, and responses by Tehran, viz., economic, military, and intelligence relationships with China and Russia; an overview of the economic agreements; and forms of (known) military agreements. Several highlights below on IRGC’s preparations for what they see as an inevitable war with the U.S.

• Iran’s drone warfare program was initiated during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88). It is multi-faceted (e.g., ISR, loitering munitions, UCAV; UCAVs capable of launching air-to-air missiles at aircraft, etc.). Diverse technologies were battle-tested in Ukraine and fine-tuned. Improved models were sent to Ukraine for battle-testing. Ukraine experiences suggest that many U.S.-made weapons will not survive contact with Iranian UAVs/UCAVs, especially loitering munitions.

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