Iran-Yemen SITREP

Three distinct but related reports of note from today. (1) US engaged in indirect talks with Iran through Omani mediator: (1) talks were on curbing Iran’s expanding nuclear program; (2) and US asked Iran to throttle Ansarallah’s activities; and (3) Ansarallah tested a hypersonic missile. The reports indicate that major escalation is likely in Red Sea/Gulf of Aden.

The US conducted secret talks with Iran aimed at persuading Tehran to use its leverage over Yemen’s Houthi movement to convince them to halt attacks in the Red Sea. The talks took place in Oman in January 2024; talks also addressed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program.

The US conducted secret talks with Iran aimed at persuading Tehran to use its leverage over Yemen’s Houthi movement to convince them to halt attacks in the Red Sea. The talks took place in Oman in January 2024; talks also addressed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program.

Multiple published sources

Operation Prosperity Guardian

This is evidently not going well. Relentless US/UK airstrikes on Yemen have not degraded Ansarallah’s capabilities, but have infuriated Ansarallah and Yemeni civilians, who have died in droves. Ansarallah’s production sites are scattered and underground; and their launch sites are mobile. Moreover, the US has admitted that it has an ‘intel gap’ with respect to Yemeni sites and capabilities. Airstrikes have generated headlines in the collective west and satisfied simpletons in both publics and governments that US/UK are degrading Yemeni capabilities. If the US has had to resort to begging Iran—‘please, pretty please, with sugar on top, make the bad Yemeni men go away’—we can be certain that Red Sea/Gulf of Aden attacks will continue until the US forces Israel to ceasefire in Gaza and allow food supplies to starving Gazans.

Nuclear program

The US unilaterally withdrew from JCPOA in May 2018. Iran has not surrendered to ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, but has instead escalated its nuclear program, and recently tripling its monthly yield of 60% highly-enriched uranium (HEU). Breakout to 90% HEU is not linear; ‘days or weeks.’ Iran has all but abandoned its ‘neither east nor west’ policy and joined the ‘Coalition of the Sanctioned.’ It is up to the US to offer Iran substantive sanctions relief to accede to any American requests (or more likely ‘demands,’ since the US abandoned diplomacy long ago). An agreement between US and Iran that measurably benefits Iran is a low probability event since Tel Aviv maintains veto power over US foreign policy in the Middle East.

Yemeni Hypersonic missile

This is interesting! A hypersonic missile travels at speeds of Mach 5 or higher. As stated in two earlier posts, there are ongoing military exchanges between Russia and Iran (first and second). Russia, ticked off at US-led proxy war in Ukraine, has hinted at initiating a proxy war in the Middle East. We still do not know what type of missile was tested by Ansarallah. Was it even hypersonic? Or possibly subsonic (<Mach 5)? Was it based on a Russian design? Or an Iranian design? Was it manufactured by Yemenis? Or delivered pre-fabricated for assembly and launch (with technical help)?

One commentator has suggested that a modified version of IRGC Aerospace’s Khayber-Shekan missile could function as a hypersonic missile: ‘The lowest-end Yemeni “hypersonic missile” could be the Khaybar-Shekan with a reduced payload to reach at least 1,650 km [i.e., Israel]. With several skip trajectory maneuvers, KS remains in the hypersonic regime for a good portion of its terminal phase and remains maneuverable.’

Conclusions: Ansarallah will not relent. Their objectives are clear: end the siege of Gaza and declare a ceasefire. Until then, all US/UK ships, irrespective of whether they are destined for Israel’s Eilat port or not, along with all ships to/from Eilat, are legitimate targets. They have declared their ‘steadfast’ support for the Palestinian people. Iran has no incentive to expend the leverage they have with Ansarallah to compel them to cease-and-desist. Moreover, the degree of influence that Iran wields over Ansarallah is unclear. They are not a ‘proxy’ as claimed by US/UK, i.e., a mindless puppet that dances to Iran’s tune. Ansarallah has promised to sink HMS Diamond, which is re-deploying to the Red Sea region. We should expect Ansarallah to eventually strike an American or British ship, especially if they do possess a hypersonic missile like Khyber-Shekan. It will get hotter in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Stay tuned!