How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’?

Slowly and methodically.

Legend has it that a frog placed in a shallow pot of water heating on a stove will remain happily in the pot of water as the temperature continues to climb, and will not jump out even as the water slowly reaches the boiling point and kills the frog. The change of one degree of temperature at a time is so gradual that the frog doesn’t realize he is being boiled until it is too late.

Lt.-Gen. David Barno (U.S. Army, Retd.), ‘Challenges in Fighting a Global Insurgency,’ Parameters 36, no. 2 (2006): 15–29, at pp. 23–24

Iran is boiling the American and Israeli frogs methodically. They are calibrating every increase in temperature like scientists in a laboratory. Two connected examples.

USA: Following the attacks of 7 October 2023, Biden deployed U.S. Navy assets to the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea to ‘defend’ Israel. USS Eisenhower and its escorts  transited the Straits of Hormuz on 26 Nov 2023 and parked in the Persian Gulf (on the Saudi Arabian side). Ansarallah fired their first shots at commercial vessels on 19 October, but limited targeting to Israeli ships and the Israeli port of Eilat. But after 29 Nov 2023, Ansarallah escalated its attacks on Eilat, and ships headed to or from Eilat irrespective of flag or ownership. Predictably, on 18 December 2023, the Pentagon announced the start of ‘Prosperity Guardian’ to protect Israel’s prosperity with American military lives. Eisenhower and escorts quit the Persian Gulf and scurried to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to ‘defend’ Israel. Brits and Europeans followed the Americans. (Nothing less was expected by Washington of its vassal states.)

The U.S. Navy has parked assets in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. They are vulnerable to Iranian and Iranian-supplied cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. The U.S. Navy and USAF cannot defeat Ansarallah. U.S./UK bombings of Yemen have failed. The pace of attacks from Yemen is sapping naval resources and morale. Unlike ‘Hollywood guns,’ U.S. Navy ships do not have unlimited interceptor missiles and they cannot be reloaded at sea. As for morale, it will break, particularly since many/most Sailors and Marines are not invested in Israel. ‘Captain Chris Hill, the commanding officer of Ike, says “people need breaks, they need to go home.” But he says they don’t yet have dates for when that’ll happen. So, one of his tasks is to maintain the crews morale and resilience.’ While Sailors, Marines, and Airmen are ‘antsy,’ the Yankee Frog in D.C. is merrily swimming around believing the ‘might’ of the U.S. Navy will defeat the pesky Houthis.

This was a well-calibrated move by Iran that accomplished two objectives: (1) it got the carrier battle group out of the Persian Gulf; and (2) it sucked the United States into an escalatory trap. The Yankee Frog is in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden hotpot. It will either jump out and flee in humiliation, further destroying the credibility of the U.S. Armed Forces following the debacle in Afghanistan; or it will remain in the hotpot and be boiled to death—the loss of ships and military lives. With either outcome, Iran wins. Relatedly, an Iranian defeat of the U.S. will be welcomed by China, Russia, and scores of countries that despise the U.S. Moreover, as the ‘Armchair Warlord’ noted—and we know who he is—by its actions, Iran has demonstrated ‘reflexive control’ over U.S. actions. By this AW means, ‘if every military action you take gets a symmetrical reaction, then you can control the nature, venue, and tempo of the conflict to your benefit.’ This is precisely what IRGC is cleverly doing.

Israel: The wee Israeli Frog, meanwhile, somnolent in the warm water, is dreaming of his ‘new Israel,’ the paradise that he will create after he has ‘ethnically cleansed’ Gaza of its indigenous people. He has plans to develop Gaza. Israeli architects are even now drawing up blueprints for luxury condos along Gaza’s beachfront, and housing units for new settlers. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, Netanyahu supporter, and Likud Party benefactor, is measuring the drapes for his Gaza waterfront condo: ‘Gaza’s waterfront property, it could be very valuable…’ But IDF has not defeated Hamas, which continues to inflict serious damage to military and civilian assets. By most estimates, Hamas has only been degraded by 15-20%. IDF is wholly dependent on the U.S. and its vassal states for armaments since its domestic production capacities are limited. According to one estimate, c. 500,000 settlers have returned to their homelands; most will not return, especially members of religious communities who are being threatened with conscription. Conscription is no longer a safe if annoying three-year requirement for Israelis: parents are afraid for their daughters and sons. Relatedly, the dormant ‘refusenik’ movement has awakened, with draftees refusing to serve in IDF and being jailed for their actions.

The shekel keeps declining. It is 3.60 ILS to 1 USD, from pre-7 October 2023 highs of 4.01 ILS to 1 USD, with further declines likely. Budget deficits and borrowing have skyrocketed. Moody’s downgraded Israel’s credit from A1 to A2 on 9 Feb. 2024, with further downgrades likely. Israel’s tourism industry has collapsed. Major airlines no longer fly to Israel. Israel’s manufacturing and agricultural bases are small; Israel has limited access to natural resources and energy. It is dependent on overland lifelines to Jordan and Egypt. Azerbaijani oil and gas enters Haifa from Turkey. The Israeli economy, in short, is in shambles. Iran is doing to Israel just what Israel did to it with sanctions, but Iran, unlike Israel, has abundant oil and gas resources; and formidable domestic agricultural and manufacturing bases. Tehran is slowly strangling Israel’s economy. The port of Haifa is on Hizballah’s target list. If Haifa is shutdown along with Eilat (which is now laying off workers), Israel will only have overland lifelines for food and energy supplies. The Israeli economy cannot take a ‘long war,’ but a long war—the slow boiling of the Israeli froggy by Iran, Hizballah, Ansarallah, and Syrian and Iraqi militias—is exactly what Israel should expect. Herbert Stein, the economist who headed Nixon’s and Ford’s ‘Council of Economic Advisors, said: ‘if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.’ The Israeli Frog is not close to being boiled to death, but IRGC is masterfully stoking the fires and temps are rising.