Ahead of Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, a look at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.
Escalation Ladder/Escalation Domination
The graphics are for illustrative purposes only. They are not exhaustive. They serve to show the vertical escalation available to Iran/Axis of Resistance and to Israel/Allies, i.e., intensity of actions; and horizontal escalation: multiple dimensions—conventional, nuclear, economic, types of weapons, targets (civilian, military, infrastructure)—available to both sides.
Israel and Allies are limited in their options: they have, for instance, imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions and have no new sanctions of value to impose. On the other hand, IDF has not exercised its full conventional power on Hizballah. It has rungs left to climb with respect to Hizballah and Iran. Iran and the Axis have imposed “economic sanctions” on Israel by strangling the economy: tourism has collapsed; Eilat Port has closed; bankruptcies are rising, shekel has fallen, state debt costs have increased. The Axis can escalate in the economic dimension by wiping out Israeli tech, chemical, and food factories, oil refineries, offshore gas platforms, and other infrastructure.
The US has sent ships to the region and has bases and ports in Gulf Arab states. But Iran is playing a home game while the U.S. Navy is playing an away game. The Navy can project power, but this projection of force is limited by factors like geography, logistics, and offensive systems; and Iran’s and the Axis’s defensive capabilities and doctrines. U.S. Navy’s Operation Prosperity Guardian failed despite Ansarallah exercising low-level harassment options. The U.S. Navy can be expected to suffer losses of ships and experience casualties should IRGC activate its ballistic missile “Ring of Fire” if the U.S. intervenes on behalf of Israel. Carrier battle groups (CBG) are a throwback to a bygone era.
High-Value Targets
There are many targets and scenarios; for instance, Iran hits IDF HQ, Mossad HQ, Knesset, etc.; types of weapons (high-precision targeting to mass casualty weapons, etc.). I will only mention four high-probability events.
1. Dahiya Doctrine: Disproportionate response by IDF and mass casualties in Beirut. They got away with it before—and are getting away with it in Gaza thanks to Western support—but they will not get away with it if they strike Beirut or Tehran. Hizballah and IRGC will target Haifa and Tel Aviv.
2. Hostages: It is assumed that the Axis will strike and kill U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria; but it better serves the Axis to capture American troops and civilians in Syria, Iraq, and at the U.S. embassies in Beirut and Baghdad. They will serve as “bargaining chips” in a future settlement, while acting as a brake on Washington’s impulses to escalate further. Arab tribes are presently ejecting U.S.-backed Syrian terrorists protecting American outposts. If the pockets collapse and the pro-Assad militias succeed in isolating and surrounding U.S. forces in Syria, they will be poised to inflict one or more “mini Dien Bien Phus” on American troops, or take them prisoner. The Arab militias are supported by the Syrian Army and Iran. The timing of this offensive is not coincidental.
3. Infrastructure and Industries: Sayyid Nasrallah, in his speech of Tue., 6 August 2024, said that Israel has $131 billion invested in factories, and which took them decades to build. All of that can be erased in under one hour. This is likely.
4. U.S. Navy: If the U.S. intervenes, it is likely to lose one or more naval vessels, probably an aircraft carrier. IRGC has simulated this scenario. By destroying a U.S. Navy carrier, Iran will terminate an irksome American practice of sending carriers into the Persian Gulf to “intimidate” Iran. It will be a powerful victory for the Islamic World: Muslims will cheer for Iran. At the Battle of Tsushima during the Russo-Japanese War (1904–05), the Japanese destroyed the Russian navy. But more importantly, this was viewed as a great victory by “Oriental” people over Caucasians. Iranians understand the military, political, and psychological benefits to sinking an American carrier.
Black Swan Events
“Black Swan” events are high-impact events that are not readily predicted. Aspects to consider:
1. Iran: Nuclear test to demonstrate that it has joined the club. It will serve as deterrence.
2. North Korea: has expressed support for Iranian retaliation following the Haniyeh killing. It has nuclear-tipped missiles with 15,000 km range; Israel is ca. 8,000 km from DPRK.
3. Russia: Is helping Iran militarily. Expect Russia to get involved further; for instance, by closing Syrian airspace to IDF, and perhaps shooting down IDF violations of Syrian “no fly zone.” Details of discussions held during Sergei Shogui’s visit to Iran on 5 August 2024 are not known, but Russian advisors are in Iran—as they have been many years—assisting in preparations for IRGC’s response. Given that Iran helped Russia in the Ukraine War, particularly in the early days when Russia needed friends, we can expect a high degree support and coordination of activities (see also point 5, below).
4. China: Unlikely to get involved militarily, but like Russia, supports Iran and the expulsion of U.S. forces from West Asia (Middle East). What will China do if Iran is under unexpectedly high military pressures from U.S. and Israel?
5. Ukraine: Russia may launch a major offensive to coincide with Iranian offensive. Pentagon and White House will be unable to handle two simultaneous crises. The Kursk incursion has infuriated the Kremlin. Russian pushback against Kiev & US support for attacks inside Russia is very likely.
Escalation Domination
Iran owns the escalation ladder. IRGC plays chess to Washington’s checkers. This was evident in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. Tehran can intensify its actions on multiple dimensions, either directly or in coordination with members of the Axis. Hizballah, for example, has unveiled novel weapons systems, but is holding back on other systems. It has also treated the settler colonies in the north very gently (Israelis will disagree). Hizballah can rain hell-fire on settlements and military and civilian facilities throughout Israel. It will become quite interesting!
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