Israel’s 25/26 October 2024 strike on Iran depended heavily on access by IDF aircraft to Jordanian airspace. Jordan defended Israel in April and October by activating the “Arab Dome”—Jordanian air defenses—during Operation True Promise I and II. It is clear to Tehran that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a threat to its security. The next Israeli air attack to traverse Jordanian airspace could deliver nuclear warheads. The King of Jordan is the problem. Should Iran de-stabilize the Kingdom and/or decapitate the Midget King?
Jordan: Fragile Political Situation
Jordan is a vassal state of the United States. It is dependent on American foreign and military aid for survival. King Abdallah II is an obedient servant of Washington and Tel Aviv. Jordan is a repressive state with an abysmal human rights record (see, e.g., Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, Amnesty International), but unlike China, Russia, Iran, and Syria—countries that oppose the United States—we do not hear endless litanies of criticism from Washington officialdom and its array of think-tanks of human rights violations in the Kingdom of Jordan.
Despite the pro-Palestine demographics and sentiments inside Jordan, Abdallah II supports Israel’s assaults on Gaza, West Bank, and Lebanon. The Kingdom’s security apparatus, therefore, has gone to extreme lengths since 7 Ocober 2023 to repress anti-Israel and anti-genocide protests in Jordan, but have failed to quell them (see examples, here, here, and here). The pot is simmering in Jordan.
Decapitate King and Destabilize Kingdom?
Iran warned Arab states surrounding Israel that if they assist Tel Aviv, they will incur Iran’s wrath. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait appear to have taken these threats seriously, but Jordan—despite domestic opposition and social-political unrest—supported Israel. As Israelis noted, Jordan is critical to Israel’s security. If the Kingdom falls, Israel will suffer.
Tehran’s Choices
Iran, like every other nation, must back up its diplomatic words (threats) with actions (punishments) if it is to be accepted as a regional superpower. Tehran has three choices:
Option 1: Ignore Jordan’s role in the 25/26 October 2024 Israeli strike on Iranian soil (and Jordan’s role in defending Israel during Operation True Promise I on April 13/14);
Option 2: Destroy select military targets in Jordan as punishment;
Option 3: Bring down the Hashemite Kingdom, by, inter alia, (a) decapitation strikes against Abdallah II; (b) ballistic missile and drone strikes against Jordanian military, intelligence, and police assets; and (c) active measures undertaken (inside Jordan) by IRGC to collapse the regime.
Conclusion
Option 3 will not secure Jordanian airspace against future encroachments by Israel. Israelis jets will continue to fly through Jordanian air space—unless Jordanian air defenses miraculously turn on IDF. However, if Iran succeeds in collapsing the fragile Kingdom, it will send a chilling message to Gulf Arab states that if they allow their airspace to be used by the U.S. for an air campaign against Iran—under, say, the next Trump Administration—they, too, will pay a price. A collapsed Kingdom, accompanied by social and political unrest, will sever supply lines from Jordan to Israel; and deny Israel a critical ally. U.S. may not be able to retain its military bases in Jordan under a new regime.
Perspectives 
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