Israel’s Failed Attack and Iran’s Air Defense Systems

Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.

Reconstructing IDF’s Failed Strike on Iran

There were two distinct modes of attack against installations in Tehran, Semnan, Ilam, and Khuzistan provinces. Firstly, a drone swarm of unknown size from the Caspian Sea or the northern mountains against soft targets in Tehran and Semnan provinces (see, two scenarios in 1 (a) and 1 (b)); secondly, IDF aircraft (including stealth) against hard targets in Ilam and Khuzistan provinces, launching from c. 80-100 km beyond Iran’s border with Iraq. NB: it is certain that IDF tried to penetrate Iran from Iraq, but aspects in 1 (a) and 1 (b) are speculative. Iranian authorities know what happened in Tehran and Semnan provinces, but are not holding press conferences!¹

1 (a). Drones (Scenario I): perhaps stealth model RA-01, and armed with mini-cruise missiles (also bearing stealth technology). The drones were detected; most were shot down by Iranian Air Defense Forces anti-aircraft artillery (AAA or “ack-ack”). Hence the sounds of cannon fire in the environs of Tehran, and the bright flashes in the sky, but no impacts on the ground. SAM interceptors were not expended against cruise missiles or drones entering Tehran Province.

1 (b). Drones (Scenario II): drones launched from inside Iran by sabotage units. Mossad has done this before, notably, the use of quadcopters against a facility in Isfahan following Operation True Promise I (April 13-14). The U.S.-backed terrorist group, Mujahidin-i Khalq, is the likely candidate to have participated in such a sabotage operation. AAA cannon fire is consistent with drone usage. A hit on a building in Shahrud, Semnan Province, 400 km northeast of Tehran, lends credence to the theory of a sabotage unit launching a strike from the north (Caspian Sea or the mountains north of Shahrud).

2. Stealth Aircraft: IDF deployed c.100 aircraft, including F-35 Lightning stealth fighter jets; KC-130 mid-air refueling planes (IDF or USAF aircraft, or combination: on 25 Oct 2024, ten USAF KC-130R Stratotankers flew to the Middle East accompanied by twenty USAF F-16 fighters); and F-16 fighter jets to protect the tankers; and probably at least one AWACS.

2 (a): Some IDF (and USAF?) aircraft traversed Jordanian airspace; other aircraft flew through Syrian airspace and attacked radar installations there. Iraqi airspace is controlled by United States; the U.S. is, therefore, a direct participant in the attack on Iran.

2 (b): Three attack waves were planned: the first was for SEAD (“Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses”); the second and third waves were to deliver strike packages to pre-determined targets.

2. (c): SEAD aircraft—“Wild Weasels”—seek to bait air defense radars into targeting them, thereby revealing their positions. This allows Wild Weasels and/or accompanying attack aircraft to target air defense systems. This where things went wrong for IDF. SEAD is close-quarters warfare—a knife fight where both combatants risk injury and death. SEAD cannot be conducted from afar. The closest IDF came to Iran’s border (with Iraq) is c. 80-100 km.

2 (d): IDF encountered “something” that led to the failure of SEAD mission. IDF waves two and three that were awaiting a positive outcome of SEAD aborted and returned to Israel. IDF aircraft fired several missiles in the general direction of targets in Ilam and Khuzistan and went home.

Declare Victory and Roll the Propaganda Machine

“If an Israeli’s lips are moving, he’s lying.” Timeless and true. Mission failed but the propaganda all but claims that Israeli tanks are parked on Ayatollah Khamenei’s lawn.

RUMINT and Analysis

Yoav Gallant promised a consequential strike on Iran:

“In my conversation with them [IDF] I emphasised – after we attack Iran, everyone will understand your might, the process of preparation and training – any enemy that tries to harm the state of Israel will pay a heavy price.” [emphasis added].

What went wrong? Some of the following is RUMINT (Rumor + Intelligence). Israeli sources told a British analyst, Alastair Crooke (see below), “We’ve discovered an unknown air defense system…”.

Alastair Crooke is a respected analyst. He served thirty years in SIS (MI6) under diplomatic cover in posts in locales that included Israel and Iran. Crooke articulates the connection between failed SEAD and stealth technology. Other analysts have also noted SEAD failure since successful SEAD is the pre-requisite for penetration of Iranian airspace by IDF; however, these analysts did not raise the linkage to stealth tech. Since F-35 jets were used, we can infer that Iranian Air Defense Forces detected the F-35s. It is public knowledge that Iran possesses Qadir (or Ghadir) phased array stealth detection radar system developed in Iran, and first deployed in 2013. Therefore, whatever IDF encountered was more sophisticated than Qadar/Ghadir; hence, “we’ve discovered an unknown air defense system…”

Gates of Hell

As Crooke noted, “Iran has an effective air defense system; Israel does not” (video, 11:33 mark). If Iran does have air defenses that are exceptionally robust—and only the political and military leaderships of Iran know the truth—and can prevent penetration by IDF and USAF stealth aircraft (B-2 Spirit, F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightning), then Iran can strike Israel with relative impunity. American naval and air bases in the Persian Gulf can also be destroyed. It will be possible for Iran to open the “Gates of Hell” for Israel. We will soon find out how severely Iran punishes Israel in Operation True Promise III.

1. Analyses of this section are based on multiple sources. Special credit is due to Twitter/X users: @Pataramesh, @ben-reuter_IMINT, @EternalPhysics, @FilippoNer97498, and @AMIRIGM, and probably more that I failed to note. Apologies if this is the case. On the other side are plenty of empire propagandists like the half-wit Tyler Rogoway whose tweet is reproduced above, and of course, all-time fan favorite @sentdefender ↩︎